Seeing as though electric vehicles is a popular topic at the moment, I’ve started this thread for people to drop in news items on the subject. You can drop a link, but also feel free to add your thoughts if you wish. If a particular item generates enough discussion, we’ll start a thread to avoid confusion (tag a mod or CHOICE staff if you need help with this).
You may also wish to check out these existing topics:
I see that Choice made a submission to government saying:
CHOICE recommends that the Federal Government should introduce strong mandatory fuel-efficiency standards to create the right incentives for efficient cars to be made available to Australian consumers.
This is to benefit consumers in (at least) the following ways as better emission standards will:
Save on fuel bills for those who stick with ICE vehicles.
Reduce dangerous air pollution.
Encourage EV use.
Reduce dependency on imports which will improve our balance of payments and (since our reserves of fuel are so low) improve security in the event of international strife.
The background is that Oz is well behind international standards and despite various studies being conducted over the years there does not seem to be any action imminent.
My question is; was there any reply or comment from government or any other stakeholder?
I have started watching for this with pretty keen interest. I already own a pretty weird car - Smart Roadster 452 - but it’s becoming very hard to maintain due to lack of parts. When it finally gives up the ghost or has something critical unrepairable - will definitely be looking at an EV closely.
May be headed to AUS 2023-2024 - though not listed in the 2023 Wheels releases
My EV news page also includes a link to my submission on the federal government’s EV strategy. It points out the availability of EVs with a 5-star ANCAP safety rating and the need to maintain high safety standards.
Thanks for this. I also think another question is, how much is a replacement battery? I’ve heard that car companies don’t advertise this because of the exuberant costs. I’ve been told they can start at $45,000!!!
They currently the battery pack themselves start at around $12-20K for cars which have smaller battery capacities up to $50k for more prestige cars with higher capacity batteries. Nissan currently subsidises its replacement batteries and they are the industry cheapest at $10.5K.
When they need replacement will depend on a number of things such as how the batteries have been looked after (charging speeds, recharging cycles, rate of discharge etc) and what a car owner is willing to accept (80%, 70%, 60% etc of original battery capacity). There seems consensus that batteries, unless they have a catastrophic failure, should give 12 years + of life. The + being some of the variables outlined above.
There are also differing views in relation to whether batteries in the future will become cheaper. Some say economies of scale will push prices down, others say resource constraints (such as rare earths) will be exacerbated by increased production causing upwards pressure on battery costs. I am one that thinks battery prices won’t fall as some predict as historical forecasts from past years of cheaper batteries hasn’t come into fruition.
Batteries removed from EVs may also continue to be used for less demanding applications…but, this doesn’t prevent the outlay of a replacement battery for an EV vehicle.
“64 Km on petrol would cost $16” ??? I don’t think so. Over a month, my 2 litre Citroen C5 averages 6 litres of diesel per 100 kms, so would use less than 4 litres over 64 Km. Diesel is currently around $2.05 per litre (well, that’s what I paid for it in Perth yesterday) so a 64 km drive would cost me about $8.00
The trends in EV production and manufacturers commitments reveal how it is. Performance and luxury vehicle brand BMW is investing heavily in EV’s. The investments include 6 new battery manufacturing facilities for its 6th Generation of batteries. The scale will increase BMW’s EV output to provide 50% of all production by 2030.
‘BMW Gen6 Batteries May Foreshadow Class-Leading EV
As consumers there are differing view points on the current choices in the Australian market. It’s also evident from discussion in related topics there are differing priorities that determine if the next vehicle purchase decision will be,
new or second hand petrol/diesel,
hybrid or PHEV (such as a Toyota Camry Hybrid or Mitsubishi Eclipse Cross PHEV)
battery electric (BEV such as a Tesla or MG ZS)
avoid replacement and keep what we have
Some of us may look to change lifestyle and abandon car ownership altogether. For many households it’s the second biggest expense after home ownership.
Look to any motoring web site for news on EV’s. The common threads include massive investments and commitments to increase EV production. There are also significant investments in battery production and development. There is very little news in support of new investment in ICE vehicle production.
The Tesla Roadster was first available in 2008 and with models costing over US$100,000 in 2010. IE more than AU$200,000 in 2022 inflation adjusted. It’s not news that there are at least 3 major BEV brands selling in Australia for under AU$50k. All 4+ door everyday passenger vehicles with a proper roof at one quarter the price (4 times the value) of the best in 2010.
3.39% EV market share of new vehicle sales is certainly insignificant. The growth rate of 65% is not.
Providing the growth in sales continues at a more modest 50% year on year more than half of all new vehicle sales in 2030 will be EV’s.
How relevant would achieving that outcome be to Australia achieving a 43% reduction or better in GHG emissions by 2030? Transport makes up nearly one fifth (18.6%) of the total of all Australia’s GHG emissions. More challenging is that Australia’s emissions from transport since 2005 rather than decreasing are now 8.6Mt CO2-e greater (10.5% absolute increase). That’s despite the improvements in fuel economy many petrol and diesel vehicles now provide.
CATL is now offering EV manufacturers the ‘Qilin’ battery pack. The packs offer an increase in specific energy (better than the pack in a Tesla) and significantly improved pack cooling enabling faster charging.
Australian long distance driving still needs toilet stops and burger meal refills every few hours. Likely for longer than the up to 10 minute recharge every 3-4 hours.
The power grids are quickly becoming the weak link. A decade back I needed to site a facility that only needed 3MW and the number of options reduced very quickly. Concurrently recharging dozens / hundreds / thousands of EVs each having 10 minute charge cycles would ‘break the bank’ until electrical capacity was addressed by localisation, a disruptive technology, or a big build.
You will need to fill in the blanks a bit here. How much power does one of these 10 minute chargers require per car? Why would you imagine thousands of them running concurrently, the largest service station I know of has a couple of dozen bays.
There are bout 6,500 servos in Melbourne, the largest being ‘only a couple of dozens of bays’. Melbourne for one does not have large capacity/essentially unlimited power in most areas. At 24-100kw per battery charge compressed into 10 minutes the spot demand on backing power could be manageable or could become a deal breaker without accompanying upgrades.