Another mapping tool …
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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An article regarding the importance of washing your hands to help prevent the spread of diseases.
I have noticed more people using the paper wipes that Coles and Woollies place in dispensers outside their stores to wipe the shopping trolley handles.
Presumably the wipes are treated with disinfectant, but even if they are, consumers still need to be cautious with what that do in the stores such as taste testing grapes or other foodstuffs others may have handled, as well as handling any products and then touching their faces.
As per my post in another topic, I am still to see any evidence of the panic buying and empty shelves the media is claiming.
https://choice.community/t/covid-19-planning-ahead-or-panic-buying/20018/2
Our local Chemist Warehouse had a fully stocked display of hand sanitizer near the entrance, and Coles and Woollies seemed to still be fully stocked with everything today.
I did see another person wearing a face mask today, a younger Eurasian woman.
However, there were very few people around at either the Mt Sheridan or the Stockland shopping centres today. It appeared that people were avoiding going out in public.
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I have approached the local school P&C as there is currently no encouragement from the school management or teachers for students to wash hands prior to eating their food at the school recess breaks.
Listening to one of Australia’s leading virologists on the ABC radio this morning, the most effective preventative measure for the general community is to wash hand prior to placing ones near one’s face or before eating food.
I would have through that the Queensland Education Department would have been on the case and instructed/directed all schools to adopt a wash hand before eating policy. It is very easy to do yet very effective in preventing infection of our children.
The P&C will be raising it with the school management next Monday with an expectation that mandatory hand washing will be introduced before meal breaks.
It would have been good to start earlier to make it become a habit before any potential outbreaks occur.
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From the Adelaide Advertiser today:
New powers aim to stop an outbreak
TOUGH LAWS
ANDREW HOUGH BRAD CROUCH
PEOPLE suspected of having coronavirus could be immediately detained by authorities, and face arrest for the first time if they defy orders, under tough new powers to be rushed into law today.
As authorities across the globe, including in Australia, battle to contain its threat, the State Government yesterday announced a raft of changes to public health legislation to prevent the virus from spreading. In a series of dramatic measures revealed yesterday, the state’s Chief Public Health Officer will now be able to immediately quarantine anyone suspected of having the virus, and detain a person at any hospital or facility deemed necessary.
Under the proposed changes, signed off by State Cabinet yesterday, a sick person can also be forced to stay home.
Detention would be legally enforced by police or security guards if required.
The laws will be used with other public health outbreaks. Until now, such decisions could only be made in writing and had to be approved by a magistrate. If a person refuses to obey the new orders they can be arrested and charged. Under state law, those who deliberately breach the Public Health Act can face a maximum five years jail or fines of up to $250,000.
The laws, which will be introduced to parliament today with Labor’s support, come after three South Australian virus cases.
The details emerged as cases escalated outside China including in South Korea, Iran and Italy. The virus is spread by droplets or close contact.
The nation’s Chief Medical Officer, Brendan Murphy, yesterday warned that stopping the virus spreading into Australia was “no longer possible” and the best that could be done was to slow the onslaught.
The Federal Government also suggested people could be banned from shopping centres, schools and workplaces.
As Sydney officials announced the first cases of person-to-person transmission in Australia, Attorney-General Christian Porter said tough biosecurity laws may have to be used for the first time.
Announcing the SA measures alongside Premier Steven Marshall and Health Minister Stephen Wade, Chief Public Health Officer Associate Professor Nicola Spurrier, pictured, said the changes would help stop an outbreak.
She said people should think about their travel and urged flu shots and proper hygiene, adding people needed to be “alert but not alarmed”.
Crossbench MPs were briefed last night. Mr Marshall urged people not to panic amid reports of supermarket shelves being emptied by stockpiling.
He denied current legislation was unsafe but said SA could not have “set and forget laws”.
“I don’t think people should feel anxious,” he said. “What they should feel is assured that their Government is looking at all possible scenarios.”
[…]
– with Clare Armstrong and Claire Bickers
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As was brought up as a result of a US doctor’s admonition about staying home in the US, what is the circumstance of those living paycheck to paycheck who cannot or are not allowed to go to work? Food, rent, bills, etc.
I’ll punt nobody thought about nor worried about that aspect.
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Sick leave?
But many do not have any entitlement.
For those that do it is most often limited.
And sick leave is only paid at the base rate.
At least you will have a Doctor’s certificate, or will being quarantined under suspicion be adequate evidence?
I spoke to our Doctors yesterday. What flu shots? Everyone is asking. They have no vaccine for this year, and none left over from last year. Come back in a couple of months when the vaccine is released. Ok? Not Ok!
Our health authorities look like they are making somethings up as they go? I hope not.
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… and none that is applicable to COVID-19! Best prediction is there will be a vaccine in 3~4 months but it will not be able to be deployed for a year because of approvals, manufacturing and logistics.
Litmus test: Are they working for or at the behest of the pollies? Therein lies the answer.
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I think I understood that. It seems the authorities believe there is some other benefit in getting your flu shots. Perhaps to reduce concurrent infections in the vulnerable, or weakened immune systems due to a bout of the flu? Perhaps simply to make it less likely symptoms are due to the flu. Demands for hospital space and medical services often peak in the flu season without the added loads from serious Covid-19 patients.
It just seems crazy to be encouraging flu shots if this seasons vaccine is not yet readily available. More panic than reassurance?
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The ABC is also putting a human face to the potential impacts on employment.
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Chinese researchers report that there is actually two strains of the coronavirus.
Last night’s Coronavirus special on ABC 7.30
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Contrary to recent claims that children and pets are not being infected with coronavirus, these articles show otherwise.
Children can get a CoVid-19 infection. However, current reports are that they generally show very mild symptoms (or potentially none). The risks of complications with children is also very low to almost nil.
The older >40 years, the risks gradually increase with those most senior having the greatest risk of complications.
This graph shows the mortality rates for each age band based on confirmed cases…
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… in a subtle way this sums up the situation 
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It looks like .gov.au has now got it’s act together with better information and a single source.
I’m felling OK. 
Over 5million Aussies are aged 60 or older.
A 3.6% or greater mortality comparison rate under the health system of mainland China.
Australia has had 2 deaths from 52 known cases, as of 5th March.
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One has to remember the mortality rate is hased on confirmed cases, that being where testing showed presence of the virus. As many individuals have no to little symptons and don’t go for medical intervention, many are not tested or have the opportunity to be tested. Such individuals hage the infection but don’t form part of the mortality statistics.
The other effect is that there is a lag between test results being known and the time of a death. One needs to look at the same time scale rather than what the numbers are on the same day. For example, confirmed cases could represent confirmed infections from 2-3 days prior to the date the humbersbare released…where as mortality rates usually represent the same day numbers.
As a result, many experts have indicated that the mortality rate is less than 1% and possibly around 0.5%
Individuals not showing symptoms poses risks in relation to spreading the disease as they may be able to infect others without knowing.
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In the general population?
I referenced your linked source and the stats for the older population. (i.insider.com). 
True, if you are under 60 it may be a 0.5-1.0% mortality. I can’t quite see how a statistical error might account for the proportionately greater observed death rate in older beings as unreliable.
Yes, we don’t know the exact number of secret carriers. However, No one is suggesting there are a significant number in the wild, and the virus appears to be highly contagious.
There is testing and assessment being done in Australia and other affected nations of those who have had contact or proximity. The results are finding other instances of infection (no symptoms or very clear signs) are an exception, and not a general outcome.
The messaging from the Australian CMO is very clear about the potential for severe impacts to the community. We need to take follow the actions and recommendations as they are advised. No panic necessary, but prudent observance necessary?
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Yes, in the general population.
As outlined above, these statistics are only based on confirmed cases. There will be many who are infected with no or mild symptoms, don’t seek medical attention and therefore are not tested. It has been estimated that for the general population, the mortality rate is less than 1% with many experts thinking it is possibly around 0.5%.
As the Commonwealth Department of Health indicates, those which have the higher risk of complications from a coronavirus infection are:
- people with compromised immune systems (e.g. cancer)
- elderly people
- Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people
- people with diagnosed chronic medical conditions
- very young children and babies*
- people in group residential settings
- people in detention facilities
*At this stage the risk to children and babies, and the role children play in the transmission of COVID-19, is not clear. However, there has so far been a low rate of confirmed COVID-19 cases among children relative to the broader population.
Work emerging from overseas also indicates that smokers also have a elevated risk as well, particular elderly smokers. This is possibly why more elderly males have died in China (and possibly other countries) as a significant proportion of the male elderly population smoke, where little women of the same age do/or did smoke in the past.
In relation to the elderly opoulation, a death from coronavirus is assumed when there is virus within the tested same after death. It is also possible that death was caused by other factors and it was coincidental that the virus was also oresent at the time. Others can be attirbuted to complications of the virus. There are reports of some healthy elderly also having no or mild symptoms.
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We are just going to have to disagree on the messaging and facts. There seems little point in offering up content that demonstrates the risk and consequences differently.
Is there a risk in being dismissive of anything less than what the current statistics report, or government CMO ( who is not a politician but a senior medical expert) are advising?
If COVID-19 is infecting many others in the community undetected we will soon know. The expected sign might be an exponential increase in known infections, mostly from unidentified carriers. I hope not! 50% of us might be infected before this years flu season has got to the half way winter peak!
P.S.
Where is the evidence for, or is this just speculation?
It isn’t speculation, but based on how the data is collected. For example…
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/asia/japan-coronavirus-infection-levels-hnk-intl/index.html
And there are many other reports about China, Italy and Iran.
I have also posted earlier in this thread the estimates of infections in China about a month ago.
There is a significant difference between number of infections in the general population and the number of confirm cases from thise tested. The number in the general population will be significantly greater than confirmed cases…and the only real way (which is impossible to do) would be to test all of the population regularly to determine what the actual level of infection is.
In relation to lag, when confirmed cases are small like those in Australia and increasing/growing, one needs to look at when the infection/testing occurred to compare it with the mortaility rate. The lag could be days or even week or more. One should be looking at the confirmed case data in about 1-2 weeks to get an idea of the mortaility of confirmed cases. Mortality and confirmed case data isn’t synchronised so looking at figures posted today is statistically misleading.
ABC radio has had some leading local and internation virologists who have explained how using confirmed data is misleading and have provided their own thoughts on the actual mortality rate. What is consistent is the rate is less than 1% for the general population and more likely around 0.5%. They have also indicated that for 90 (to 95)% of the population, the risks are very low with no complications. The other 5-10% may have some complications and fall mainly into the group of frail elderley, elderly with a significant predisposed medical condition or those in the population which have a suppressed immune system.
As posted elsewhere, there is also views emerging that smokers may have also have a predisposition to complications, as evidenced by the links in earlier posts.
Unfortunately the media uses confirmed cases at the same time as quoting the number of death. Using these numbers alone without understanding the above will lead to overestimation of the mortality rate. Such will create anxiety amongst the population.
It isn’t being dismissive, but realistic and based on statistical analysis.
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