Looks like there is a run on N95 masks in China and our friend yesterday said that they are near impossible to find any available in China either in retailers or online. Some of those who do have them seem to have been profiteering from their short supply.
Our friend also asked for us to see if we could acquire some in Australia for them…but a quick search and a few phone calls indicates that retail/shops have been sold out and there are limited available online (only large bulk box supplies seem to still be available).
There is also mixed information from experts about the benefits of the mass population wearing masks. When we lived in China during the SARS outbreak, some of the leading virologists suggested that wearing a mask really only is beneficial on those who have the infection, to prevent droplets containing the virus emanating from the infected persons noise/mouth. Such action prevents the virus contaminating surfaces which (uninfected) others may have contact with.
There was also some evidence that unless one didn’t touch one face at all (which if difficult if one has a mask on for an extended period), that the mask on a healthy individual may increase the the risks especially if one has been in contact with the virus. The adjustment of the mask potentially results in contaminated fingers touching the face leading to a potential source of infection.
Over the weekend, a friend who is also a doctor who specialises in infectious/communicable diseases amongst drug users, made mention of this Lancet article published on 31 January 2020…
This article presents an estimate of the total number of infections, rather than confirmed infections (confirmed infections being where one has symptoms severe enough to seek some sort of medical intervention) which is often used in the media.
Our friend indicated that the number of infections in Wuhan and surrounds are possibly significantly greater than the numbers used in the media (where confirmed cases are used). He also said that based on the percentage of travellers from Wuhan with confirmed infections outside China, the number of infections would be significantly greater as outlined in the Lancet article…unless those travelling were more susceptible to the infection (which he indicated is highly unlikely).
The Lancet article estimates that the number of infections could be around 76000 on 25/1/2020. Our friends seems to think that the total number could be in the 100,000s or more since some who are infected show little or no symptoms of concern and could be infecting others showing the same responses.
It will be interesting to see if others also do estimates as the reported confirmed cases seem to be a significant underestimate of total infections and only represents those in the population which have sought treatment due to more severe symptoms.
Those rushing to find medicines and vaccinations to treat the 2019-nCoV could be onto a winning thing if any medicines/vaccinations prove to be highly effective.
The ABC has a good article on measures to reduce likelihood/prevent coronavirus infections. The information appears to be similar to that recommended for tge cold and influenza season.
Rushing to find a face mask may not be money well spent,
NOT so fast. NO Vaccine! Just another step towards developing a vaccine for human use. It may or may it succeed. There are more than 100 versions of a protein that will be tested in the trial as a test of their potential to combat the virus. Assuming one or more succeed it will be a great achievement, and just one of several more steps towards required in developing an effective human vaccine. If not it is a lesson learnt and back to the drawing board for another attempt.
A quote from the experts.
"It is a new territory for vaccine design. Vaccines take many years to develop from concept to licence and use in the community.
"What we are aiming for is somewhere between 12 and 18 months, which is remarkably quick."