Over the weekend, a friend who is also a doctor who specialises in infectious/communicable diseases amongst drug users, made mention of this Lancet article published on 31 January 2020…
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
This article presents an estimate of the total number of infections, rather than confirmed infections (confirmed infections being where one has symptoms severe enough to seek some sort of medical intervention) which is often used in the media.
Our friend indicated that the number of infections in Wuhan and surrounds are possibly significantly greater than the numbers used in the media (where confirmed cases are used). He also said that based on the percentage of travellers from Wuhan with confirmed infections outside China, the number of infections would be significantly greater as outlined in the Lancet article…unless those travelling were more susceptible to the infection (which he indicated is highly unlikely).
The Lancet article estimates that the number of infections could be around 76000 on 25/1/2020. Our friends seems to think that the total number could be in the 100,000s or more since some who are infected show little or no symptoms of concern and could be infecting others showing the same responses.
It will be interesting to see if others also do estimates as the reported confirmed cases seem to be a significant underestimate of total infections and only represents those in the population which have sought treatment due to more severe symptoms.
Those rushing to find medicines and vaccinations to treat the 2019-nCoV could be onto a winning thing if any medicines/vaccinations prove to be highly effective.
