It appears that the AZ vaccine (summary on UK health website from the paper in Lancet) ā¦
ā¦minimal protection against mild cases of the South African variant, but the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the South African strain.
The study, which was based people of an average age of 31, shows that protection may be as low as 10%. The research wasnāt able to determine whether it protects against serious illness or hospitalisation, because this group of people were at low risk of serious illness. Other research suggests that the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the South African strain. More research is needed in this area.
(Source dated 13 May 2021)
While media reports are concerning, whether AZ reduces serious cases or death is unknown as needs further research. The 10% figure is also in a young population and if it is representative of all ages, especially over 50 year age is also unknown and needs further research.
Oxford University is currently working on a booster vaccination to cover variants (South Africian) and if it is found the first vaccination efficacy isnāt satisfactory, it is likely those who received AZ may need a booster shot at some time in the future. This response is similar to the annual flu shot where initial doses are sometimes modified to include emerging strains during vaccination rollout.
It also appears that Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations have reduced effacy against African variant and like AZ, more research is needed to determine impacts of the South African variant on their respective efficacy in each age group.
Edit: There seems to be a lot of unknowns across all vaccinations and it will be watch this spaceā¦until new information and data is available. As Australia has over ordered each vaccination, this decision may prove beneficial if rollout has to rely some, not all that is available. Was the over ordering a mistake or a stroke of genius/forecast potential different efficacy scenarios which could occur in the futureā¦donāt know but it may prove to be the right decision irrespective of past politics on the issue. I recall at the time the government was trying to put as many eggs in the one basket.
With more variants (India, Brazil), expect more changes. At least the vaccinations provide efficacy against some strains, which is better than none. Ongoing management of variants ahead of vaccinations and their modifications may pose challenges returning borders to the preCovid normal.
I feel for those trying to manage vaccination rollout with information changing daily, selective reporting in the media causing concern/confusion and adjusting the program to try and best protect Australians. There will be criticism of changes driven by factors outside their control, but those making the decisions must be under enormous stress and trying doing their best in the circumstances.