Just advising the community of an email suggestion I sent to my local MP.
There is obviously a significant number of people wishing to be tested for COVID19 whether they are ill or not. Many health professionals & others seem to want to dissuade this behaviour on the grounds it overwhelms the health services for those who don’t really need it. But as Kevin Andrews said, “person to person transmissions are a matter of when not if”. Without all those willing to be tested how will they ever know the true extent of ‘Person to Person’ infections?
I suggested if they establish an online register of interested persons to receive a mail-out sample kit like the Bowel Cancer Testing Program the public can take sample swabs themselves as I cannot imaging it being as arduous as taking Stool Samples.
This would free up doctors & nurses from mundane tasks & reduce crowds of people in clinics lining up to be tested. Health Services & even sample testing can be prioritised to high-risk groups while still tapping into a groundswell of test results governments & health professionals must have if they are to adapt to changing conditions.
One of the challenges of this approach is people without symptoms woukd get tested, reducing the number of kits available to thise who do and have sought medical assistance.
The number of kits are limited and should be prioritised to those with symptoms.
Yes, this may be a great solution for longer term conditions and health assessments. COVID-19 is currently a very immediate threat to health. Is a mail out a suitable strategy given the immediacy of the problem and rapid responses required.
Assuming there is a sufficient supply of kits suitable for home testing (currently kits to suit may not be available).
Can anyone wait the 7-10 days for AP to deliver the kits, and can you wait another 7-10 days for AP to return the kits, plus a day or two to join the testing cue?
Even with Express Post the turn around is likely to be 4-5 days for the capitals and 6-8 days for most regionals.
On the possibility of having COVID-19 that’s a long time to put yourself in isolation. It’s worth considering that anyone you had close contact with in the days preceding feeling unwell will also need to self isolate from the time you order the test, just in case it has been passed on.
I’d rather know the same day if possible. Firstly for a positive result to be aware as I have other high risk factors. Secondly on a negative to be able to live a normal life for the next week, and avoid needlessly placing all my recent close contacts into self isolation.
A good suggestion for when there is no urgency as others have explained.
Overseas and here the medical experts are asking for people not to go in for testing unless they have severe symptoms,
At the moment there are enough kits to test severe cases, but if the COVID-19 gets out of hand here there won’t even be enough kits even for severe cases.
Perhaps the Korean’s have the better approach with the drive-thus. Turn around less than 24hours.
In a car park behind a hospital in Seoul, 45-year-old Rachel Kim rolls down her car window and sticks out her tongue. She travelled to Daegu last week, the area with the highest number of coronavirus cases in South Korea.
Now she’s developed a bad cough and a fever. Fearing the worst, she decided to get a Covid-19 test at one of the dozens of drive-through centres. Two people dressed head-to-toe in white protective clothing, clear goggles and surgical face masks are ready for her.
A long swab stick is rummaged around the back of her mouth and throat and then placed carefully into a long test tube.
Then comes the tough bit. The swab goes right up her nose. She screws up her eyes in discomfort, but the whole thing is over in minutes. She rolls up her car window and off she drives. She will get a call if the result is positive, or a text if it’s negative.
Thank you for your responses, you all make valid points. Perhaps Kanga2 comes closest to my reasoning, to get on top of COVID19 the response needs to be absolutely full-on as in South Koreas case which has been widely praised for its effectiveness.
Funding for the manufacture & distribution of test kits would need to be greatly enhanced & as previously eluded to testing of swabs from high risk groups could be given priority, but to sample only those who fit the officially recognised criteria you risk being surprised over & over as to what the criteria should be & your ability to keep pace with the changes.
My fear is without broad testing it will be like an election where Political Analysts of decades experience can still be gob-smacked by a result & struggle to comprehend what the underlying factors actually were.
A test only says if you have the bug now, in two weeks time you could get it. This is going to last months, how many times should we be tested? We have 25 million people, we don’t have 100 million (or more) tests. Nor do we have the laboratory capacity (equipment and personnel) to process and interpret them. Nobody is saying how many tests we have, one suspects nowhere near even one each.
Consequently the number of tests available is limited so they need to be prioritised.
The comparison you draw with political polling does not work well. Pre-election polling can be inaccurate and not predict the actual poll. The reasons are sampling error, people changing their intention and people lying about their intention. None of those apply to the spread of the bug.
The spread of the disease can be monitored quite accurately from confirmed cases, this lags when the patient got it of course but that isn’t essential to epidemiological predictions. So we are not going to suddenly find the pandemic is going an entirely different direction to the one predicted.
So apart from being impossible universal testing isn’t really required.
That’s a good thing not a bad thing. People can be asymptomatic but able to spread the virus.
Testing more people gives you a better idea of the true scale of the pandemic. Only testing people with symptoms bad enough to seek medical assistance is a major selection bias and also leads to significant under-reporting (which could then lead to under-resourcing and inadequate planning).
True.
So the real challenge is that there are not enough test kits available. That is a global challenge right now. The world needs hundreds of millions of test kits and those can’t be made, or the results processed, overnight.
We should always be cautious about single studies as you suggest. Also the purpose was to study the behaviour of the bug not as a pilot for a comprehensive scheme.
Assume for the purpose we had the resources to test 100% and in some weeks time knew accurately who is infected, symptoms or not, is it really possible to then isolate them all to prevent further spread? Oz is not a village.
However if regions are demonstrated to be virus free and they are cordoned off, spread can be contained to active areas. Not quite that simple, but still possible to make a good dent in the infection rate, or so it would seem. Tassie is doing the 2nd step as a demo, having a moat to make it possible.
All? No. A substantial fraction of them that would then make a big difference to total cases? Probably yes.
One consideration is that some people are inherent risk-takers. A person thinks they he might have COVID but it isn’t certain so he says **** it and goes to work / goes to the shops / goes to wherever v. A person has been tested and knows he has COVID so he stays home (self-isolates).
I would love a home test kit at the moment. I returned from Asia at the end of January with a bit of a cough but no fever. I tried ringing the Commonwealth and State Health hot lines as well as my local hospital. All I got was that the system had overloaded and was no longer working. At a local level I was told the lines were busy and to ring back later. Tried this for a week then today fronted my Doctors surgery but no available appointments. So next stop was my local pharmacist who checked my temperature and my cough and considered it was mostly a common cold but still advised me to self isolate if possible. It is 8 weeks since I returned to Australia and feel that if I had a home test kit, at least I could either relax or seek further medical treatment.
In the sense of a do-it-yourself like home pregnancy testing I don’t think there is any such thing at the moment. A swab has to be processed in a lab using specified reagents in a specialised machine run by trained staff. This is why test are rationed, limited supplies of reagents and limited capacity of labs and staff.
I understand the reason for no home kit but my comment was more at the frustration of the media messages re the Hot lines. If you have a hotline, you MUST provide sufficient staff to man it. I was one of the Managers of the biosecurity section during the Equine Influenza outbreak a few years ago so understand viral infections. The AUSVETPLAN virtually insists if you have a hotline, then make sure people can readily access it; unlike my efforts. Maybe the authorities should be following the national animal exotic disease management plan rather than try to make rules on the run and cause more confusion and frustration as seems to be currently.
With the benefits of historical perspective, 20-20 hindsight and anonymity how do you now rate the performance? Was the plan adequate? Was it put into effect on time? Were the resources to perform it adequate in number and training? Was the money spent efficiently? Did vested interest play their part or set out to to corrupt the process? Overall how did it go?
I know this is somewhat OT but I don’t think I am the only one at the moment to ponder if our large organisations are prepared for infrequent but important random events.
I worked in pest animal research and extension for 40 years and studied feral pigs and foxes particularly to combat future impact of either a foot and mouth outbreak or a rabies incursion. We were “blooded” to use a crude term, when avian influenza erupted at Tamworth in 1994 but the states and the Commonwealth were working on contingency plans for an exotic disease. Selection of staff was critical and training was consistent. With the Newcastle Disease outbreak at Mangrove Mountain in 1999, all our training efforts paid dividends. A first response team consisting of Veterinarians, co-ordinators, field operatives and others had been put in place so it only took refining for the particular disease to bring it under control (which in most instances took at least 6 months). The Equine Influenza outbreak in 2007 tested the plan and with minor refinements was very successful and cost effective.
My first thought when I returned from Asia amid the impending COVID-19 spread was to think that maybe the AUSVETPLAN would be a great document to kick off our control and strategic management in Australia. I still hold that view but I think there are Commonwealth and State differences which could hinder it’s full potential. I wish everyone well and having worked in over three major viral infection outbreaks (in animals and birds) trust that the quarantine and movement restrictions we had to impose and enforce are applied to people.
For clarification, when I say home testing I mean Home Sampling. People taking swabs themselves and forwarding them to a Test Facility.
As for Testing (& other resources) we managed mobilize the ADF during the bushfires. They are on the payroll wether or not there is a war to fight.
So too all those private sector Lab Technicians who may face being stood down as the economy shrinks. Senior university students who’s qualifications to date may be adequate to assist & gain experience while they are stood down.
The submarine contract with it’s frequent costly delays & showing signs of being another submersible lemon, the money thereof could be better spent on biological defence.
Scott Morrison said “…most of our Coronavirus cases are imported”. How would he know!? If we are ONLY testing those from O.S. with flu like symptoms & those who come in close contact with them of course THEY are going to represent the principal result.
Suggest seeking further medical assessment would align with current advice and may provide answers to all your concerns. One of our family did so earlier this week via their GP and was able to arrange a consult the next day.
Supposedly individuals showing symptoms of COVID-19 develop these and the infection shortly (days) after infection. Perhaps professional medical advice might clarify if you can carry the infection for two months without falling seriously ill, or developing an immunity and loosing the ability to infect others shortly afterwards.
Are all those near to you still well? If not have they contacted their GPs for assessment.
It would seem a great option for when the crisis is managed assuming it is practicable.
Sounds complicated.
Do the samples need to be handled any special way. Will the virus expire in the post and fail to be detected in the testing. In the mean while do all of those self testing self quarantine just in case their test returns positive?
