Water Security, Murray Darling Basin

As a matter of clarity, in many cases a model’s approximations are as accurate as nature for the purpose.

Early in my career I was assisting a professor to develop a computational method for solving a particular equation related to space flight. I do not remember so many details but the equations were not amenable to a quick enough solution to be relevant in real time and a faster method was required.

The professor developed an approximation that was fast enough, NASA accepted it and put the algorithm into operational systems (circa 1978~79), His ‘approximation’ turned out to be as or more accurate than the guidance and command and control systems were capable of dealing with. A total win. He earned his contract and for me the education was invaluable.

Ever since, when I read any text that implies disparagement of an ‘approximation’ I always wonder two things; one being how rigorous the approximation is; and two what they might be trying to hide or obfuscate, if anything, through implication.

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Yes, some models can be quite accurate, especially when variable factors within the model are predictable, along with any interaction between factors,

When working at university in the early 1990s, we often tried to predict plant yields using models and then testing with growing trials. With one or two factor models (one or two nutrients variable and limiting, while all other factors not limiting/variable), the models were reasonably robust and could give a good indication if yield…a nice shaped yield curve with relatively low variability. When a large number of multivariable, interacting factors (nutrients, water, light, soil conditions, temperature, disease, insect damage) were modelled, the reliability disappeared quickly and the outputs were approximations at best. Work then commenced to look at two factor interactions to try and understand interaction relationships…and then I left uni for the private sector. I understand that the more complex multifactor models have become better but still only approximations.

Likewise with a long heterogenous catchment like the Murray Darling system. There would be 100s, if not 1000s of variables and these factors would have assumptions and some estimated. Such models are unlikely to ever cover all known factors and interactions …there will always be unmniwn unknowns. If one realises this is the limitation of the model, then any outputs can be used for trends or approximations based on these limitations.

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Well it seems that the Aust Govt are going to cease the buybacks. MDBA to be killed off and a new Compliance Authority created.

Is the excrement about to hit the fan? Or has it already done so and it is just being shoveled around.

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which is why consensus techniques have been in use for decades now. Multiple parallel executions with different perturbations, with a consensus of results being the ‘answer’. While there are unknown unknowns as you wrote, there are many but reality is an error in one way here is often corrected by another error in the other direction there aided and abetted by the reality nature is not in itself perfectly predictable so the many variations introduced into consensus modelling techniques reflect nature as it is - not perfectly predictable but for the purposes models are used for when unbiased and non-political, usually close enough to make a credible decision when done by the well intentioned who understand the techniques.

Then partisan pollies and the media and conspiracy mongers, trolls, et al get into it, and …

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When Mick Keelty’s review to the Minister in April this year is considered, no surprise.

It’s a difficult topic to comprehend, because of the interests of 3 states (SA, Vic, NSW) all competing for water resources. Qld has a contribution with both upstream flows and a shared river on the NSW border.

Down stream communities and agricultural users are debating their losses with those upstream, who may be or may not be better off. Keelty’s review presented that flows In just one portion, the Murray River over the previous 20 years have halved compared to the prior century.

Mick Keelty said the dramatic reduction in Murray River inflows was the “most telling” finding of his report.(Supplied: Interim Inspector-General Of Murray-Darling Basin Water Resources, Based On Data Provided By The MDBA.)

There is a lot of pain if this is the trend for the basin as a whole, for agriculture and the environment.

For The NSW state economy, cotton was a $2B industry in 2018.
The Murray-Darling Basin accounted for about 70 per cent of agricultural water use nationally in 2017-18. About 1.5 million hectares in the region were irrigated, up 8 per cent on the year earlier. Some 6.8 trillion litres were used on farms, a rise of 7 per cent, the ABS said.

Cotton farms in the basin alone used 2,505 Giga litres of water on 320,000 hectares of land, both up about 4 per cent from 2016-17.

As a simple point of comparison Greater Sydney with 5.3 million people used 568 Gl of water in 2018-19. It took 5 times that volume to produce $2B worth of cotton.

P.S
If it appears this is picking on cotton, it’s just easier to find concise economic data on that use in the MDB. It’s also a significant user of water.

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I am trying to imagine a government study that does not report and recommend what, or close enough to, what the government wants to do. The best I noticed to date was a diluted whitewash with most being akin to multiple coats of white paint.

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Some on the Darling Downs might argue that the shared river is well inside Qld not on the border :slight_smile:

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They may well be right about some of the river, if Google maps is to be believed. Rivers change course over time and state borders are fixed? Portions of the border rivers are now wholly in Qld, and for other sections land on the northern side is in NSW. One view. A more informed view suggests otherwise. although it too is open to challenge, it’s now generally accepted to be the middle thread of the rivers on the border.

Notably the Murray River is also mostly in NSW due to the top of the south bank being the original border.

It illustrates just how complex water management between states can be. It’s also of historical relevance that those providing advice on the establishment of the borders between NSW and the other states were Sydney/NSW dominant. If nothing else they reflected the prior expansion of NSW controlled from Sydney. Given large portions of Victoria and Qld drain into the NSW rivers, this was always going to be a source of tension. While NSW also generates 33% of national GDP.

For the approx 2million residents of the Murray Darling Basin State discussion of state borders may be a source of angst. More important and relevant is the difficulty of assuring their water needs, environment included. And their immediate residential/township needs amount to just a few percent of the volumes allocated in the basin each year.

Not to mention the complications of SA and expectations of access and use of the freely flowing resource of the Murray.

How the Commonwealth and States resolve all of these needs, it appears we are all back to the beginning. Should I suggest they need to move the borders. :rofl:

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The Condamine from memory becomes the Balonne which becomes a series of rivers that then joins the Darling in the Sth West of Qld, but my memory could be very deficient. A map by the MDBA shows the Darling starting near Bourke in NSW. The Condamine and Balonne are also considered part of the Murray Darling Basin, All very connected so sadly a lot of affected country :slightly_frowning_face:

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The only deficiency is likely the water in the basin.

One map that seems to have the topic geographically covered.
https://www.mdba.gov.au/sites/default/files/pubs/1269-Murray-Darling-Basin-Map-Poster-A1_0.pdf

The irrigation areas shown on the poster are those with distributed water supply. A significant portion of the basin is irrigated using water drawn directly from the environment, IE by capture of overland flows on property, pumping from river flows (natural or upstream release) and ground water extraction (bores).

Lots of little notes on the poster, but no mention of the water volumes flowing or captured in the system.

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Too much drawn it is pretty much certain

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Moved from Sydney to Tamworth 4 years ago. When we moved up Chaffey Dam was full & the town was on the normal permanent restrictions, which in the main is no use of sprinklers in the heat of the day (residential or commercial). Within a couple of months the restrictions started to crank up through the levels to level 5 and is currently sitting at level 4. Within that period we have had towns around the region with no water at all for citizens to use, so water had to be trucked in. Irrigators got their take of course and I can tell you that cotton farmers are not a popular group around this region. I have seen mention that there are towns that rely on cotton farms and perhaps that is true in a financial sense. When you talk to residents in those towns however, cotton fans are few and far between. It’s hard for someone to see the financial benefit of farms that have levy banks higher than houses full of water, when they turn on a tap to get a glass of water for their kids and nothing comes out.

The worst thing to happen to a dry country like Australia is the formation of a water market. You will never get any agreement regarding water use in this country now as profit comes before people. Now that water is a fully fledged commodity that companies can invest in means that the financial interests of water will always outweigh community needs. Water will never be free of course as to supply water costs money through treatment, transport, storage, etc. but it should never have been turned into a profit making enterprise.

Cotton farming isn’t the only problem in the system by any means, but it is an easy industry to target when drought affected towns have no water available to them for basic needs or to grow veges to feed their families. Articles such as this https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/31/photos-reveal-queensland-cotton-farms-full-of-water-while-darling-river-runs-dry are also good at getting the fingers pointed at cotton, especially when the industry trumpets it as a “dry land crop”. I’ve had many discussions with people across the region up here (we often travel to different towns) and cotton growers are a sore point, probably because the industry gets so much attention. Arguments that are raised ranged from the basic “You can’t eat cotton so why in a dry country are we wasting water on it” through to the spurious “All the cotton farms are owned by Americans, so it’s the Yanks basically stealing our water”. These aren’t from people against farming either, they just don’t see the value in growing such water intensive crops in a country like Australia (more than a few stated we shouldn’t grow rice or almonds either). A lot of people I spoke to were incensed that ‘normal’ farmers couldn’t access their water allocations for their food crops or stock, but the cotton farmers still got all their water - of course I have no idea whether those statements were true or not, and without checking the individual farm records there is probably no way to check.

As someone who is only a recent mover to the country, I really had no idea how emotive the water situation is - from people in towns through to farmers on the land. The government by no means escapes blame either, they are probably looked on less favorably than cotton farmers lol. The genuine outrage when this story hit the news had people raging for months https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/more-than-six-months-worth-of-tamworth-s-drinking-water-disappears-without-a-trace-20191220-p53lxt.html. Theories about what happened are still circulating and no-one believes Water NSW when they say it was due to transmission losses (evaporation, etc.). Theft by irrigators is blamed, corrupt government officials selling it off is blamed, and of course complete mismanagement of the whole system is blamed with people saying those in charge have no idea where any of the water is going.

My personal view is that fresh water in a dry country is a complex problem with only worse issues to come with a changing climate. I do believe however that it is not something that should be a profit making exercise. The way things are heading it’s a no-brainer that it will get to the stage of people in some areas taking matters into their own hands, and I don’t think anyone wants to see that. People need water for basic household needs including their gardens, farmers need water to feed our country and export, industry needs water to function and the environment needs water to survive. I know some will get their hackles up when the environment is mentioned as they believe that people who care for the environment (environmentalists) are ideological radicals incapable of independent thought and therefore bereft of the ability to see practical solutions, a sweeping generalisation akin to saying all coalition voters are coal burning, fossil fuel worshipping environmental terrorists who care nothing of the planet future generations inherit lol.

The system as it stands is not working, but to get a system that works for all is going to be devilishly difficult as there are too many parties with competing interests. Do we need to go down the road of telling farmers what they can and can’t grow? Who should be in charge of deciding where the water goes and how much each interested party gets to use? Should water trading be banned or do we restrict it only to parties directly linked to the water to be traded (i.e. towns, farms, industry) and not investors? Does the control of water need to be handed to a truly independent body comprised of scientists, industry and social representatives to determine who gets what and when?

I can see the sense in the arguments about growing highly water intensive crops on a dry continent, as it does make sense. Who would decide which crops would get banned though, and how would you work out compensation for those farmers affected? Would we only compensate those that had perennial crops such as almonds which are long term land investments, or do we also compensate annual croppers such as cotton growers? Does the compensation only cover the specialised equipment bought for that particular crop, or does it cover the difference in profits between what they grow after the ban to what they grew before? Would the government have to buy farms back from those that didn’t want to farm anything else?

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How does one manage that?

It should not be subject to theft, corruption and lack of verification. The problem isn’t that the system permits profit but the mismanagement that allow rent-seekers to profit while honest people fail.

No, that is the route of the command/control economy which was shown in Russia to be worse than market forces and to lead to gluts, famines and more corruption.

As you point out in your last para there are many questions to be answered and many vested interests to be dealt with. It is such that no leading pollie will invest the political capital in it because they will not see a return for decades and the chance of failure is excellent. We will see some rearranging of the deckchairs on the Titanic and trimming at the edges of the worst excesses.

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The same process that essential services used to be provided. Electricity, gas and water (utilities) all used to be provided by government entities until they were sold, turned into profit making exercises and prices skyrocketed.

I disagree completely. It is exactly that the system permits profit that causes the theft, corruption and lack of verification. There isn’t much call for theft or corruption if there is no profit to be had! Can’t see Obeid & Co bothering to do shady deals over coal licenses if it wasn’t about money being made lol.

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Well obviously. Therefore to stamp out those evils all we have to do is to abolish money!

It is possible to deal with corruption and rent-seeking, it is in fact essential to a just world that we try systematically and put money and political will towards that goal. Making a resource free is hardly a solution. Having a resource like water properly regulated and transparently audited will go a long way towards those goals

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Was not the penultimate issue with the Titanic a deficiency of life boats? They were a finite resource on the day. No need to debate how or why so many were all there on the decks with nowhere else to go at the last moment.

What price an extra life boat?
And she ship could alternately have sailed with fewer passengers and crew. A lesson there in over confidence, under estimation of risk and a desire for profits.

With water allocations, also a deficiency. Not enough to go around. No need to debate how or why so many were asking for what can not be supplied.

What price more water from the sky?
And the volumes committed as available could also have been less.
A lesson in …

Water is a finite resource. It appears we are yet to learn the lesson and price it according to it’s real value. As it falls from the sky and lies on the ground it has value, but no price greater than the cost of collection. For those collecting overland flows or damming streams (historically) it has been a commodity free for retention. Precedent for purchased supplies has been supply for irrigation at no more than the reasonable cost of collection and distribution, capital and maintenance considered.

I’m not suggesting a solution.
The Productivity Commission has far greater insight one might hope.

Approx 359 pages of insight.
I’m still searching for the explanation in the document as to how in 2018-19 the MDB could supply approx 7,000 Gl of irrigation supplies. Sufficient to supply Greater Sydney’s 5.3M Population and businesses for approx 12 years. (568Gl consumption 2019-19). Yet the same MDB Struggles to supply the township and residential needs of a population less than half that of Greater Sydney for just one year. :rage:

P.S.
Is there a subsidy the nation can no longer afford by assigning nil value to the raw resource as it falls from the sky?

At A$2.5B national income from raw cotton production in 2018 compared to the NSW 2017 State contribution to GDP of A$558, saying no to cotton production in the MDB would seem a low impact solution to remove 25% of demand on the allocations. It’s a pathetic return to the nation for the volumes of water resources consumed. I am picking on cotton this time. Perhaps there is some other reason for the importance of cotton, commercial in confidence or detailed in cabinet papers?

I can only Agree!

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There was no argument anywhere here regarding making it free. It seems in your eyes it’s a zero sum game - free or profit. Like many things in this world there is a middle ground, in this case where water could be provided for fair cost of harvest/transport/storage. Water can be properly regulated and transparently audited without having to be profitable. As for your statement about abolishing money to stamp out theft and corruption, that’s another example of zero sum thinking. Black and white are not the only options in this world, no matter what the political masters tell you.

A separate argument entirely could be had about whether fresh water should be classed as a resource for profit seekers, rather than an essential ingredient for life.

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What is a fair cost? How is that determined? If it is determined by fiat (as in the command economy) there are problems.

If it is too cheap it will be over used, demand will be too high, thirsty crops will be planted and wastage ignored. If it too expensive not enough crops will be grown, the authority setting the charges will be the one making the obscene profit, access problems that exist now will not be solved.

The point is that the cost of harvest/transport/storage is not the only consideration. Part of the reason to give water a value and to make it tradable is to give an incentive to make the best use of it.

I cannot see that your proposal eliminates corruption and rent-seeking. If there is no market then some public official will be saying who gets water and who does not. An invitation to corruption - as in the Russia example. Transparency is the solution. The officials are given clear guidelines and the resources to monitor inflows and usage and are required to report publicly but they are not given the power to decide who irrigates and who does not.

Well your idea of preventing any profit sure had me confused. How do you prevent a profit being made under your scenario and how does that stop corruption?

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Attempting to argue the case of what fair costs are, and that there is in fact other choices between free & profit is an exercise in futility and waste of time.

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Hi @obbigttam, hope you don’t mind my two pennies worth.

Water has a value. How we value it likely depends most on what we value? Opportunity, existential or survival? I’m neither a Murray River Cod nor a Pitt Street Cotton Farmer.

We don’t have a water service and live off what falls only on the roof. Even the garden needs to make do, except for the tube stock on occasion. It’s value might be in it’s absence, if that ever occurs. As a community we also have a choice to put a value on the environment and to decide what sort of an environmental future we want. Our wants are not always our needs?

Is it really an issue that is due to neo-liberalism, or is it a consequence of other influences?

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