Lots of interest here for consumers. At about 11:40, a bit about the new Regional division of NBN™. It isn’t in preparation for selling-off the more profitable parts and allowing the rest to shrivel and die. Of course it isn’t. Perish the thought!
A short version on splitting up and selling the NBN. It seems likely and was backed by previous advice to the government in 2018.
The commentary by Tech Man Pat, (I still keep getting an image of the kids Postman Pat in my head, and chuckle. They are nothing alike.), points to a focus on the rural and regional services with a dedicated Regional Services Business Unit. The NBN press release follows.
Interestingly, the NBN Co FY2019 Annual Report and FY2020-2023 Corporate Plans released last month were silent on this move. It’s likely not the type of decision made without some deep deliberation and forethought.
The new Business Unit will be responsible for the Satellite and FW services/footprint? It is not evident how that will serve mixed service localities, IE communities that have a central fibre serviced exchange with near customers on FTTN, while infill and those too far from the towns only central FTTN node are on FW or satellite. Two classes of customers with two different NBN’s in the one small community.
Speculation.
How do you solve the problem of two overlapping NBN’s?
Perhaps the NBN Co plans to abandon all fixed line services in these smaller communities, and leave them to the mobile Telcos to service. (Plus Telstra for that all important land line.) I’ve assumed that the Telcos will need to rely on the NBN fibre backbone for backhaul. Pure NBN profits without the customer angst. Or will there be an upgrade to the NBN FW using 5G as part of their faster FW service? Seems a perfect business promotion. Except the faster 5G will be for the ex FTTN customers. And not to the benefit of those out of town on satellite or the current over committed FW technology.
Rest assured, the decision of the NBN Co, guided by the hand of government will not be random. There will be a strategic purpose, as well as a political one. All that remains to be seen is who the winers/winners will be.
The AlphaBeta report is very weak in many places. It is a confection of anything that they can get their hands on to discredit an unpalatable result. However it is not 100% wrong. They say:
“First, speed test samples are not representative
of all broadband users; they simply report the
average speeds achieved by users of the tests.”
This is correct. The issue is not whether a 100% sample was obtained or if the sample size was big enough to give acceptable confidence - but if the sample represents the population in a fair and unbiased way.
The answer is that there is no evidence that it is representative, it is not a random sample it is self-selection, those who chose to measure their speed. One could argue that the bias is one way or the other depending on if you believe people with problem connections are over-represented or people who are tech savvy and buy faster connections test their system more. There could be other reasons self-selection is unrepresentative we know nothing about. We don’t have data about any of this so prima facie as selection is not random bias is quite possible.
Getting one thing right does not excuse the monumental nonsense that pervades the rest of the report.
At the rate the rest of the world is outpacing Australia, what will the NBN be worth when it’s “finished”?
What’s this word ‘finished’?
It will never be finished. The latest goal for 2020 does not provide a 100% of existing premises solution.
There is a point where the NBN Co can’t afford to spend any more, upon which the rush to market will begin.
That the NBN appears to be slow at meeting certain customers needs or avoiding them altogether suggests the budget is already stretched.
The value on completion will be a balance between future promise and liabilities from the substandard portions. Likely this will be propped up by suitable market assurances (aka protections). And perhaps some sweetness short term in the form of further subsidies for or protection of the loss making Satellite and FW services.
P.S.
Yes, there is a lack of certainty around the future terms and conditions attached to any sale of the NBN as a going concern. It may explain why the professional analysts who advise investment bankers and the big super funds have said little. Any figure they might suggest for the sale price is purely speculation. Even the NBN CEO who little more than 12 months past was touting the future sale and a price has been remarkably silent. Although behind closed doors with the NBN Co shareholder, it may be very much the topic.
It is sometimes difficult even to apply lipstick to a pig.
But they’ll try:
Got it!
The NBN is going to put every one in the cities on Skymuster so that we are all connected just like the NFF want us to be? 
Better read that release again!
Telstra’s neglect of the copper network comes back to bite them:
The NBN isn’t a pig. It’s a beauty queen!
Agree, pigs are valuable assets. No lipstick required.
A sale or breakup of the NBN Co may be a near or distant event.
For those wondering how it might look there are some interesting examples of privatised public infrastructure.
Three that may be of interest because they reflect different ownership models and regulated environments that could be similar to the future NBN.
BAC, Brisbane Airports Corporation. Privately owned but with a reasonably accessible history, valuation and annual report. There is a great corporate Annual Report each year, possibly due to the Queensland government being a significant shareholder.
Sydney Airport Corporation. 100% owned by Sydney Airport Holdings which is a publicly listed company on the ASX. It’s Annual Report is a guide to how a publicly listed NBN might be valued and the expected level of financial performance. Although it reports some of it’s financials differently which some may find a little confusing.
North Queensland Airports. A privately owned business with Cairns and Mackay airports as it’s key assets. Unlike BAC which has a government shareholder NQA does not provide much in the way of public reporting. Additionally the joint owners are also private companies, which effectively shields the financial performance from public comment.
Of these possible futures the third seems the most likely. 100% in private ownership with no visible financial or public reporting required. The government has not canvassed either a public float nor retaining a part ownership. That would seem to rule out options 1 and 2.
P.s.
It’s also possible to draw comparisons between the nominal value of the three listed investments and the value of the NBN as it might appear in 2023, based on ROI. Internet might become a gold plated luxury?
Edit, some links that on a quick flick through might illustrate just how much or little each business model might share with us customers.
Details on the North Queensland Airports Group aren’t so readily found, and often at arms length to the source.
https://www.cairnsairport.com.au/corporate
Parents are usually protective of their offspring, and Turnbull fathered and mothered this farce. He was and remains a master of self serving BS like the majority of his colleagues and x-colleagues in politics.
An honest question is whether the coalition has done anything in the last few years that has not become farcical or a worrisome overstep in increased secrecy and lack of accountability. Yet they get votes as being ‘better managers’ because they have promoted themselves that way and enough dullards accept the claim without empirical evidence.
Pigs are alos extremely intelligent, unlike the NBN.
This week’s Tech Man Pat, ending with some “Yes Minister” grade spin from nbn™.
Progress?
Reality?
Aside from actual absolute backhaul capacity does it really cost the NBN any more to provide 200GB at 100Mbps than at 25Mbps, to any fixed line customer?
The smoke and mirrors of the NBN pricing.
Some consumers pay less than the true cost of their connection, while others pay more. We don’t really know. It is just averaged out and spread around. Unless you are on Satellite or Fixed Wireless where the cost of the connection is never going to make a return. And the penalty is less speed and less data.
The end game.
To get us all onto as high a speed tier as the NBN Co can because the incremental cost of higher speeds to the NBN is likely zero?
The agreed lower cost of the highest speeds will recover less profit, but not be a loss maker for those services targeted. Longer term if it encourages others to step up a speed, the NBN Co still wins when later the charges for each tier are indexed or jacked up in unison. Gold banded NBN Co Sceptics hat still on head. 
Good for some while the deal holds?
This could have gone on the HFC thread, but it’s more general than that:
http://mailman.anu.edu.au/pipermail/link/2019-December/106352.html
Paul Budde weighs in (again). Our government broke the NBN. Can they fix it? Do they want to fix it?
Couldn’t think of anywhere else to post this. NBN’s network status page. Handy when service fails, if you have alternative Internet access.
https://www.nbnco.com.au/support/network-status
