It’s useful to see the FW roll out in an easy to read chart.
It is another way of showing that the final number of customers in the FW footprint is continuing to increase behind the total of 600,000 indicated by the NBN Co annual report. Industry commentary suggests the FW footprint includes close to 700,000 premises.
The reported take up rate for FW at 50% may also be a poor basis for determining the current and future network capacity requirements.
The NBN Co reports forecast a 73-75% takeup rate average for the NBN.
FW will need to accommodate a similar outcome. IE 75% of 0.7M premises or 525,000 connections to FW. That’s twice the 265,000 reported connected at the start of this year 2019!
It’s worth considering:
the FW network construction is incomplete in areas - more customers still to account for,
that many customers in the FW areas are holding out on connecting for now - your copper will not be turned off,
and the total of customers unable to achieve adequate service signal remains unknown?
In addition to the pressure of many more customers yet to join the FW network, peak data demand is also likely under estimated.
Peak demand reflects what customers can get. Not what they require!
There is also a tendency to under estimate peak demand with some customers avoiding peak time use when performance is unacceptable.
A second observation is that the additional $800M being provided for FW to address congestion may not make any real difference. It is also approximately the value of funds required to accommodate a further 200,000 FW customers at the current average cost per connection. A risk for consumers is the added expenditure will simply spread the current congestion across a much larger number including the newer customers!
Simply put - it is the lack of performance of the NBN that is creating the gap in uptake of FW, when compared with Fixed Line, and not any lack of demand. The NBN Co has previously admitted it underestimated significantly the demand for service in the expanded FW footprint.
The NBN Co has approx 2,300 transmitting sites (towers) registered across Australia.
Each site has a designed backhaul capacity, coverage, installed/available data capacity (allocated spectrum), estimate of premises in service area etc etc. Presented for public inspection site by site would aid the discussion on the best way forward.