A rebuttal of the usual assertions from the usual suspects.
One of the comments raises an interesting question:
Has Lomborg ever been right?
[edit]
Electric aircraft development:
The comments are worth reading.
That might be a trick question.
Similar to asking, does anyone believe everything published in the Australian, or any Murdoch publication? 
If you don’t buy and read the Australian the question is purely hypothetical.
If you do, the answer is likely different.
To each their own, as I don’t, therefore I can’t.
A more challenging question for consumers concerns the carbon footprint of every product we choose. The carbon footprint of the new wave of BEV’s is a great example. Australian consumers contribute far more to our GHG emissions through driving our motor vehicles than through residential electricity consumption. (Worth a separate discussion in another topic.)
Rather than guessing. The manufacturers and suppliers of the so called “green” products we purchase are in the best position to tell us the CO2e (equivalent carbon) footprint of their product, cradle to grave.
When looking to purchase an EV or use alternate fuel transport there are choices. These will quickly become more numerous. Should consumers be able to make an informed choice, between an EV with a high carbon cost and one that has a much softer environmental impact? Made in the USA vs China or Japan vs S Korea or Sweden vs Germany or …
For some it may not matter as the “ends justifies the means”?
Alternately, can consumers accelerate change by making an informed choice?
IE The choice to send business to a supplier (and nation) that is leading change. This may cross Tesla (made in the USA or made in China) off the Xmas shopping list for some.
A call for mandatory carbon labelling of motor vehicles.
P.S.
It’s worth noting on battery research for Lithium Sulphur tech, there has been one more small step. The battery technology can potentially carry up to ten times the charge of a similar weight typical lithium-ion battery. ( 4-5 times might be a closer to reality allowing for scientific research optimism.)
How close?
More on electric aviation:
Norway isn’t Australia but cheaper, more reliable aviation will make a difference here. If (when) realistic flight range increases so electric aircraft can serve Sydney-Melbourne or Sydney-Brisbane, then we’ll see substantial consumer impacts.
For transport within work-sites, electric vehicles will find markets. I wonder whether this one is certified for potentially-explosive atmospheres.
Tesla has long boasted it is pursuing increased energy density in it’s batteries. It may need to look further than Panasonic, or it’s own designs.
Samsung may have just delivered another step in lithium based battery technology.
There are no details of the energy density per kg, other than the new cells requiring approx 50% less volume compared to current products. Guess that works out at around 500Wh/kg, compared to current 250Wh/kg typical for a a Tesla 3.
Note
Swiss startup Innolith was claiming it had a 1000Wh/kg cell April 2019, but with no major news releases since it seems unlikely.
NSW launches a new plan to encourage the uptake of electric vehicles.
Samsung develops a new prototype EV battery.
Perspectives on electric aviation. The links are worth following.
One of the links. A little bit of history:
https://arts.eu/journey-through-the-history-of-electric-aircraft
[edit]
Everything old is new again:
If charging time is a substantial factor, then quick-change batteries are an obvious option. The taxi market is big enough to support specialised vehicles.
London taxis, for example, are a standard type. The design has changed over the years, but there’s always one model that dominates.
Given the amount of time Ubers (one driver 4-10hrs per day) and Taxis (nominally 500km daily) spend idle or waiting or on slow moving ranks, perhaps some other top up options are equally suitable without the need to rapid charge. Ubers by their business model and work from home are not intended to operate 24x7, which suggests they might go first?
Bloomberg was equally optimistic re Battery Electric Vehicles, just not for Taxi use. In early 2019 Bloomberg was already forecasting 2022 as the crossover point for the everyday car.
I’m not at all convinced that “range anxiety” (in this case, charge-time anxiety) is rational. If there’s an issue, then it’s one of management - working within the limits of available technologies and resources. Nevertheless, some people keep making a fuss about it.
Neither am I, and -
Although for vehicles with a high utilisation there are solutions.
https://www.wsp.com/en-AU/projects/newcastle-light-rail
Newcastle Light Rail is the first entirely catenary-free or ‘wire free’ system in Australia. The unique approach uses an on-board power supply and provides charging at stations while passengers board and disembark through a connection to an elevated charge bar at each stop.
Yes we keep getting supplied the example of the long distance trip from one capital city to another using more than one driver where you need 1000 km range because you have to push on and there is no time to recharge. What proportion of road kilometers are travelled like that? The vast majority of trips are much, much shorter and involve one or more pauses along the way at a workplace, residence or shopping centre that could be used for recharging.
But what about the great Australian Road Trip? It’ll be the end of the Aussie holiday as we know it. Piffle.
Before ubiquitous petrol stations, a long-distance trip involved organising fuel drops to strategic locations. One of the early objections to petrol-powered vehicles was the lack of places where fuel could be obtained. Sound familiar?
Adelaide Airport to be served by electric buses made in Adelaide:
Another twist on range anxiety. For my personal driving my last car got 10.2 l/100km and had a 65 l tank. 663 km to empty and stopped for the point.
My new car gets 8.2 l/100km and has a 47 l tank, or 385 km to empty and stopped.
The old car had enough range so I always could comfortably work the fuel cycles to maximum advantage. The new one not so much and sometimes not at all.
I do not worry about running out but the cost of fuel driving the new one is roughly the same because my average cost per litre is higher because of games petrol companies play. It would not play the same way in areas without petrol price cycles, but I live in an area where the servos are usually the first to raise and last to lower prices. I could go 5-10 km away to get a better deal, but that is not the point I am trying to make.
Even electric cars will probably have off-peaks when they are cheaper to recharge so it is not just range for them either.
In any case it may only be a few pennies to a few dollars to tens of dollars per refuel/recharge, and yes there are ways to minimise it like only getting a few litres when the price is at the top, but again, that is not my point. My point is range anxiety is not always irrational depending on what it is based on.
Looking at the broader market patterns we might expect this but we won’t know until the network of charging stations is much bigger and more competitive. The network may choose to smooth the price fluctuations, which will be diurnal not hebdomadal or biweekly.
Even if there is a daily fluctuation for most driving patterns waiting for the off peak period of the day to recharge will not be influenced by range, more likely by whether you are out at that time.
Hope against hope when there is a way to make a dollar?
That works so long as you do not need to use the vehicle. Overnight works for most of us, but that may be the queue for those extra dollars to be made by future-profit-proofing arbitrary pricing.
Trying to screw out the last dollar all the time is not necessarily to most profitable strategy in the long run.
We also have to consider that the present daily price pattern is a result of a given combination of supply and demand patterns. As the sources of supply change radically and consumers gain greater power to manage their consumption through batteries, timed systems etc then the present daily price structure may not be the one of the future. The prevalence of overnight charging of vehicles (during the present off peak) may itself alter the structure. There are many uncertainties.
Really?
Absolutely. I had not expected the responses to what I thought was essentially stating that as the obvious, although as I expressed it, it was related to why some people have range anxiety even when they do not need the range to get to their destinations.
Many second or primary family vehicles also do the daily school run, shopping trips etc. Add to this the large number of retirees with vehicles. These may spend a large portion of the peak solar daytime at home. Perhaps 30-50km pd typical. Well within the typical 200-300km range of many BEVs.
For those users, topping up from home PV or using access to cheap noon day solar from a shopping centre car park every second or third day may be a good fit.
For this large group of users putting $15k, towards the premium of a battery EV could offer greater value than a Tesla AC coupled PowerWall.
edit: note added
The last comment is based on comparing the cost of a petrol/diesel vs electrical power.
8-10l/100km typical for ICE vs 5-10kWh/100km for BEV.
Electricity can be costed at typical feed in tariffs of 6c-20c/kWh or full retail up to approx 40c/kWh. Every household is different. Potentially households can save more offsetting Solar at home against fuel for an ICE than selling to the grid.
