Will 5G Push Fibre Aside?

My browser froze on that page, taking an awful long time to process some request or other, so I closed it before reading the article.

We already have reasons for concern:

Probably not. People who use mobile data usually have a fixed line connection at home (in urban areas, at least).

Customers’ future needs will almost certainly include both mobile and fixed-point services. If current trends are any guide, the vast majority of demand will not be mobile data.

VOLUME OF DATA DOWNLOADED

The total volume of data downloaded in the three months ended 30 June 2018 was 3.8 million Terabytes (or 3.8 Exabytes).

This is a 7.0% increase in data downloads when compared with the three months ended 31 December 2017 and a 28.1% increase compared with the three months ended June 2017.

Data downloaded via fixed line broadband (3.7 million Terabytes) accounted for 96.8.% of all internet downloads in the three months ended 30 June 2018.

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There is a slow trend to mobile only connections. I thought it was only a generation Y thing, but we have some friends (generation Ys) who also now have no fixed lines. We have had to change our fixed line phone bundle to include a unlimited mobile calls as a result (to reduce our own communication costs).

There are older reports that in Australia there is some migration to mobile only, and this has not significantly affected fixed line internet connection…but yet to find more recent reports. There are overseas trends which it is expected that Australia would be similar.

There are reports of such trends in other countries (such as this one) and expect that the same trend will occur in Australia as mobility and cost become more important than high speed fixed line connections.

The NBN responded to media inquiries about the competition with next gen mobile networks, but they have been silent since 2015.

ACMA in their 2016-17 report (a long time in the technology space also stated:

Ongoing shift to mobile
In June 2017, 36 per cent of Australian adults were mobile-phone-only, going without a fixed-line telephone in their home.

While mobile phone use appears to have reached saturation levels, demand for smartphones continues to increase. At June 2017, eight in 10 (81 per cent) Australian adults owned a smartphone, up 17 percentage points from 64 per cent five years ago. This reflects consumer demand for new technologies rather than an increase in subscriber numbers.

Mobile phones were clearly the most used device to access the internet, both in terms of the proportion of people using and frequency of use. Eighty-four per cent of online Australians used a mobile to access the internet at least once a day, well ahead of laptop computers (69 per cent) and desktop computers (54 per cent).

Apps proved a popular way to communicate with family and friends. In the six months to June 2017, 88 per cent of online Australians used an app to communicate via either messages or voice or video calls."

The same report also outlined that in in 2016, 12 per cent of the American adult population were smartphone-only internet users (a smartphone but no broadband internet connection at home)—an increase of four per cent since 2013. I expect this number in the US would have increased since 2016.

A good friend who lectures in this space indicated earlier in the year that he believes that Australia is similar to the US percentages and would be increasing principally to cost and improved mobile speeds.

I’ll try to hunt for some Australian figures and might see if my friends has some (even though he is currently working in Brazil).

Deloitte has also done some predictions…and what they think can be found here:

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A very interesting article regarding 5G that I happened across whilst reading another article.

If there will be problems with 5G in rural USA with their massive population, then I would expect far greater problems in rural Australia.

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It doesn’t need to be 5G to have problems in rural Australia. There are regular reports of blackspots with past generation technologies and also concerns about increased blackspots by rural users when one generation is shutdown (end of life)…additional blackspots created by different coverage profiles.

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Whilst I have not read much about 5G, the article advises that a single tree can block reception and the range will be significantly less than with existing frequencies, which is normal as the frequency is increased.

So where there are now reception problems with 3G and 4G, they can be expected to be worse with 5G without more cell sites being installed, which is unlikely to happen in rural areas.

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Re Smart TV’s spying on the user:

No more than any other smart device, eg Solar power inverter with wifi monitoring. Noticed these call back to base to do updates? And they need a clear pathway through your home internet to do so.

Ours even transmits an open WEP network SSID while still connected to our WAP2 home network.

A whole new topic here about how to best deal with these evil necessities?

5G communications technology is not necessary, it just makes it all the more useful for whoever is listening in.

There is enough processing smarts in most of these devices to log and snoop on all of the household network traffic?

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As has been pointed out elsewhere, the capacity of the entire radio frequency spectrum is tens of thousands of times less than a single strand of optical fibre. The pretence that the future needs of households or business will be met by the mobile network is a bad joke. Pure marketing.

Business is a different matter and most need sufficient bandwidth to support their business needs and that of their workplace. I can’t see those with fixed businesses/premises being replaced by mobile as they will need the capacity of fixed line connections to function.

Fibre has significantly more bandwidth than mobile, but bandwidth is not what drives all consumers. If it did, then there would not be many mobile only connections.

Evidence shows that smartphones have about 90% penetration (I am one of the 10% without one…well even without a mobile) and are being used more and more functions which were previously carried out on desktops and smart TVs. The migration to mobile only connections has occurred with the limitations of the existing mobile network. I don’t expect that when 5G comes out the shift will be any different, it may potentially accelerate where there is adequate coverage not dissimilar to the existing mobile generation networks and consumers want to reduce their living costs.

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In principle, all things are possible. In practice, not all things are equally probable.

Demand for data keeps rising, even in the residential market. We aren’t too far from the day when no wireless technology will meet the demand.

The growth in overall demand has slowed recently. That’s probably a sign that the multi technology mix is limiting the nation’s performance. The FttP plan may have been half-baked, but what we’re now saddled with isn’t even oven-ready. Much like those who think they can run a household on the mobile network, the nation will soon be crying out for optical fibre.

There are a whole range of factors that could affect the total amount of downloads…infrastructure is one but unlikely. With any new technology, there is often very fast growth as the technology is picked up and once the technology reaches near saturation, growth slows or stabilises. The curve creates is what is called a S-curve.

These websites show this pattern:

It is possible that in the past few years there has been a significant number of consumers who have paid for subscription based video services and the number of new customers to these services has slowed or plateaued. As I understand that streamed video makes up a significant proportion of downloaded data, any change in the growth of new customers to these subscription services would impact on the total volume of data downloaded.

Information on subscriptions can be found in this AFR article.

Another factor is that only such video that can be watched at one time by a single person…usually maximum of one video per set(s) of eyes. I am yet to find anyone that can watch two or more videos at one time and absorb the content.

The other limitation could be users running out of paid data allowance and can’t afford more data or next tier packages. There have been many reports in the past 12 months of Australian tending towards lower speed NBN packages…which could be decision based on cost or packages to meet ones existing needs.

This is more plausible than fixed line infrastructure being the limiting factor as many Australian have adopted for cheaper slower speed tiers over more expensive faster NBN packages.

For those who are interested, the ABS collects data on fixed line and mobile data downloads (and number of connections). The last data set ends in June 2018.

Families? I know of many who often have members streaming (or trying to) different content simultaneously. Particularly with teenagers (or so I’m told). :wink:

I know of nobody who has managed to run a family on a mobile data allowance.

Which is why I linked to it.

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I like that thought, one solution for all. We all get Fibre. To the home and for breakfast. :grin:(The NBN delivers in more than one front.):rofl:

Just a small step towards advancement of a fairer world. I await Target to bring on the one brand only of under wear, in one size only, in one style for all, to suit preferences of all and any?:thinking:

Perhaps the reason we have a range of options for delivering data including 4G and soon 5G is someone somewhere still believes our needs are not all the same?:sunglasses:

It’s a target. Unless we try, we’ll never know how far we can go. We have time. The anticipated service life of fibre is a century or so.

Not all families hotspot of one mobiles or only have one mobile for the whole family. Most families I know each family member (over 8-10 years old) has their own. The family outlined below each have their own smartphones but wifi when at home.

I was indicating the one set of eyes on the one person.

We have a close friend which has a family like the Brady bunch…two teenage kid aged families merged. They have up to 4 teenagers at any one time + two (step) parents.

They moved house to one that had fibre and took out a top tier NBN package as they had HFC at the previous house which caused a lot of problems (they all wanted to grab their own bandwidth which wasn’t possible).

Even with the top tier NBN, they were still having problems particularly with their home WIFI capacity causing significant lag/buffering problems when watching videos/intensive online gaming (4 kids on their devices and parents either sharing one or on their own).

My mate decided to see the setting on the video streaming apps and all were running at maximum resolution even though such wasn’t needed for hand held devices. Changing a few setting and re-educating (inc. turning off streaming when not in use) the kids paid dividends as the streaming is now more stable.

I understand that arguments still occur when the microwave goes on when signal inference occurs.

I have mentioned what happened to the ‘good old days’ when the family plonked itself down in front of the TV (show or movie) and enjoyed it together). In some families it seems that individualism has taken over familism.

Maybe we are old fashioned in our household, but we subscribe to familism.

So they’re not limited to mobile data. The cost of running the residence on multiple mobile data accounts would be prohibitive. There’s no sense pretending that mobile is a substitute for fixed line. There’s just no contest.

For a family maybe, but as most Australian households are either one or two occupants, financially only using mobile would stack up for these households. Having NBN + one/two smartphones would be more expensive than 2 unlimited/download limits to meet usage, unshaped data mobile phone packages.

There are many families that already have multiple mobile accounts as most parents and teens have one glued to their fingers. The packages may be cheaper or have data limitations though.

The households we know who are mobile only connections are those without a number of children (empty nesters, singles or childless newly weds). Some also hotspot their desktop/laptops when they need PC connectivity. They haven’t mentioned any problems.

It is possible to have only mobile, but may not suit everyone.

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Expect that market to shrink.

That goes against current trends in Australia and in other countries. These trends have occurred with change in mobile platform usage and also increase in both fixed and mobile speeds (where we are today and will be in the future). I believe for this trend to change, there would need substantial trigger for this to occur. The NBN itself would not be one otherwise the trends would be going down in those countries (inc. Australia) where faster (high) speed fixed line networks have existed for some time.

I believe for it to shrink, there needs to be significant behaviour changes with users (less preference to mobile device usage) and also repricing of the communication industry (mobile data potentially becoming more expensive and/or NBN becoming substantially cheaper). Something which won’t happen overnight and its likelihood is unknown.

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That is not always the case. I know many people here and the US who rely 100% on mobile data and their phones for ‘everything internet’. @phb point is valid that a segment of the market will be attracted to 5G, and they will be happy with it if we ignore drop outs, grey spots, black spots, no spots, and insufficient back end systems servicing it.

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The trend will continue, until enough oldsters die and enough youngsters have families. Eventually, even most single-person households will find that their needs exceed the capacity of the mobile network. There will always be a market for mobile broadband, but the days of mobile as the only broadband access of premises are numbered.

Hence