What do you think the long-term interests of consumers are in relation to electricity and gas “poles and wires” network services?

the regulator makes decisions based on the energy companies requirements

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Welcome to the Community @Danielboonjp

I hope you find your membership of the Community worthwhile and interesting.

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The system should encourage local production and storage. Shipping electricity from one end of the country to the other is inefficient. Making it on rooftops and using it locally reduces the loading on the high voltage network and leaves water in the dams, effectively acting as a battery. The current pricing is a major disincentive to local production (domestic rooftop solar), with daytime rates of 33c/kWhr with a feedin rate of 8c/kWhr. The pricing should be reversed, being higher to feed into the grid, reducing dependency on lakes and thermal.
There should be infrastructure to facilitate tapping your own rooftop power from another appliance elsewhere in the country, so charging your car at the supermarket could be using the electricity coming from your roof at home. This is not rocket science, rocket science is difficult but being done everyday, heck they even put men on the moon 50 years ago.

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The national operator AEMO has updated it’s advice on electricity generation needs and security for the next five years.

It has a positive outlook short term for the increasing capacity from renewable sources and storage.

"An additional 2,245 megawatts (MW) of new capacity is forecast to be operational this summer, compared to what was available last summer. This includes 470 MW of dispatchable battery storage capacity, " the report found.

Mr Westerman said new wind and solar farms, combined with plans for ‘dispatchable’ power (which incudes pumped hydro, gas plants, and battery storage), “will all help replace retiring coal and gas plant”.

It is also noting that there are longer term risks,

The biggest risk to the electricity grid over the next 10 years isn’t the lack of supply, but rather, the lack of demand.

With households and businesses continuing to install roof-top solar power, demand for electricity is falling, particularly through the day.

Uncertainties include whether there is increasing take up by transport transitioning to electric vehicles and green hydrogen production.

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Better not tell ScoMo & Co.

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Late last year it was proposed - nationally - that we consumers should help the energy industry - out of our pockets - to cope with their substantial over-investment in poles and wires.

And I pointed this out publicly.

I’m not certain I stopped this in its tracks, but its either being done secretly, or it has been dropped. What is your guess?

Given the nature and structure of the AER / the industry / their networks it would be easy to hide whether they are acting in our interests or are busy working out ways to - still - fix up that network mess - by getting us PV panel owners and wind-power sites - to pay for it.

I’m a retired mgmt scientist myself, with a record of improving patients’ experience of the Health-care system - a complex network of doers, regulators, and consumers - way back in the 1990s.

I find it impossible to believe that the problems caused by the increase in renewable generation sources really is beyond the two? regulators, and the generators.

Surely the trend curve, of growth in distrubuted renewable energy sources can be developed (and maintained).

After all it is the regulators, network managers, and bulk generators to be modelling and planning?

Network management, including supply and consumption nodes, and growth is an adaptive modellling problem.

And for energy generation and supply it’s been a requirement for a good while, no?

A very complex model certainly, but not beyond the nouse of some good modelling designed for the trending adoption of proposed multi-mini sources of energy, and multi-large and mini users.

Based on what’s happening. Is there - yet ? - a model of the network, its inputs and its outputs and their peaks and troughs. And its rate of change, new generators & new users.

If there isn’t, you NEED one, to do your job.

Based on the,last decade or so of burgeoning energy creation sites throughout the country, which we are all being encouraged to invest in.

AER and the generators, and the States and Territories, this is YOUR JOB! Not ours.

If you don’t what I’m talking about, you are in the wrong job.

It is not beyond IT and the energy business, and its regulators, to develop and maintain a virtual, and real-time model of the real-life network.

              A network which they should also be watching as it buzzes and fizzes, 24/7.

And from which lessons can be learned and modelled effectively.

IE  Beyond what each current specialist node-watcher / network manager's currently know and deal 
with. 

And, use it to monitor, maintain and even improve the real network.

Cut the hand-wringing and get on with it. Or maybe we should get people in who will.

Choice’s Qn 3? Given what I’ve read since late last year, I don’t think they know how to do a good job, if they WANT to, and are a bit worried that they can’t.

All of the above is a good example of why we need - general systems analysts - (no, NOT IT ones).

Tim Bailey

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This is just a wild arse guess.

The folks involved feel happier with a much less complex network and marketing model, with mostly few but large generator sources, and not a lot of them.

And, a market - the consumption-only network that was - with lots of highly dependent but mini users. And a few BIG consumers, like steel makers.

And, that world has gone for good!!!

I am not confident that the industry, its regulators, nor State / Territory governance - understand the new network and market.

Let alone value it!

Why? Most senior people are selected on the basis that they are NOT change-agents.

AKA they ‘went to the right schools’, and aren’t empathetic as a result, as well.

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Looking across this and several other topics there are diverse discussions on the cost of electricity and gas, the impacts of government policy and the industry on consumers, and how best to meet current/future needs.

There is an overwhelming amount of information being produced by the Government appointed bodies. Whether this is going to reassure consumers, or had other purposes, it is a lot to take in, IE likely lost on the average consumer?

The following two links may prove enlightening, or not. Many of the concerns being raised are included.

It’s just possible that the industry and appointed bodies have a clearer understanding of the options and decisions required, than our conflicted leadership at Federal and State level.

There is also an ‘independent’ government body created to represent the interests of the average energy consumer. The following report provides links to further details of the role of the ECA. Who the role of the ECA best serves is an unanswered question.

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Breaking down the regulatory process to give consumers a meaningful say is not easy but it is important.
Maybe consumers might not be able to say much about rates of return or the correct equity returns, however, everyone can speak about their level of trust and confidence in the process and what their experience is in the cost of gas and electricity

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So the rather open-ended frame of the thread was not so much asking a question but taking the temperature of the consumer consciousness. How do you feel about it …

Well I feel that we are not being treated well by any part of the cluster of organisations and leaders who together have control of the energy market, generation, distribution or pricing. Few of us understand what is happening, who is doing it or why. We are fed a steady diet of potential problems through the media, and in some cases given scapegoats to blame, but at the same time told; don’t worry, be happy, everything will be alright tomorrow.

It seems no organisation has the brief or the courage to mount a successful public information campaign to explain the problems and possible solutions that might pass as being objective.

It is very apparent that many leaders wants to use the issue as political leverage, that doesn’t mean they are all wrong but it is hard to conclude they are doing the job of leadership. Leadership is anticipating problems, taking advice, understanding the problem and leading your followers towards their understanding (possibly a simplified view) and then to accepting reasonable solutions. If any of that is going on regarding this set of problems it is being kept very quiet in Oz. Which is really silly, you cannot do all that from inside a closed room, it must be public.

I don’t feel it will all be alright tomorrow at all. It is possible that no good solutions will be implemented in time and even if they are it will be by fiat and then a whole lot more pointless argument will take up our time as people feel manipulated or disregarded because they don’t understand at all why it has to be done that way.

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Check out Energy Consumer Australia as an organisation that is pretty good at putting consumers first.

Thanks for your thoughtful contribution to the discussion around the long-term interest of consumers.
In developing a system that takes the views of consumers seriously, it’s important for people to express their concerns about the current arrangements as well as aspirations for the future. I think an important point that you make is the need to shift our focus toA longer planning time frame. In surveys, some consumers think 10 years would be a reasonable time frame for assessing the long-term interests of consumers.

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Looking at longer time frames, the attached sets out the latest proposal and recommendations.

For a more complete understanding of where we are going it’s the best one source document I’ve read.

The preferred scenario out to 2050 that integrates decarbonisation as well as supply growth is captured in this graph.

The linked report on the plan is likely to answer most questions members of the community may have. On progress it is at the penultimate step?

The AEMO has the majority support (second Delphi panel) of government representatives, industry and consumers for the draft ISP (Integrated System Plan). Note government consultation included state and territory representatives.

The plan recognises coal generation will retire two to three times faster, greater use of distributed energy resources and the growth of electric vehicles. Hydrogen is a component. A full read of the document for those interested will explain how the plan has been developed. Alternatives such as ‘Australia as a Hydrogen Super Power’ have been considered. The draft plan developed is not aligned to that outcome. The reasons are explained by the report.

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The original post in this topic posted a challenge question specific to one part of the electricity supply chain.

The following invitation from the AEMO for contributions and comments relates to the whole of the electricity supply chain. It’s included with the draft ISP per my previous post and link.

It’s open for individuals and organisations to make submissions. Note there will also be public forums in February. Perhaps Choice @BrendanMays will have some interest as a consumer organisation in a submission.

Note that consumers will in the future be more reliant on electrical energy and consume 2-3 times current levels. Consumers face unknowns or risks including:

  • who has control and ownership (EG private enterprise),
  • the burden of the capital investment,
  • the cost to the consumer of adopting different technology.

I’m sure there are many more, which is why it might be a suitable opportunity for Choice to collectively consider what it’s consumers would find acceptable outcomes of the ISP, and what may not. It’s also an opportunity consumers did not have with how the NBN was evolved.

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Thanks, I’ll make sure to flag this with the relevant teams.

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Long term interests are intersecting with some ‘pushing’ in Victoria. The state government appears to be waging an active war against gas but while they push away from gas the electricity grid remains unreliable [in places] as well as stressed during peak times. It will be an interesting few years experiencing how it goes.

and packages to help consumers.

https://www.victorianenergysaver.vic.gov.au/victorias-household-energy-savings-package