Weather Forecasters

I have no issue with BOM forecasts. What caught my eye in your post with some incredulity, Fred123, is that you believe anything the ABC say! :shushing_face:

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I’ve often noticed how Melbourne’s
weather varies between suburbs:
the eastern ones near Mt.
Dandenong are cooler and more prone to showers than most others.
Bay-side seems to be in a different time zone, and yet most forecasts are for
‘Melbourne’ :thinking:

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Similarly to the link I posted for @Fred123, here is one for Eltham. You can replace Eltham with virtually any suburb and the forecasts do change. Note the ‘location search’ near the top in the light purple band. Although it is based on extrapolation from known weather stations it is generally fairly accurate.

you can compare this with Eltham

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Circa 2004 I met a glider pilot at a conference who ran his own winds aloft forecasts on his own fairly capable server. He got Australian data from international sources since the BOM did not publish it nor make winds aloft information freely available, using a model called RASP.

There are forecasts, and there are forecasts :wink:

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For the sake of completeness, the BOM provides an explanation of rain forecasting at: http://media.bom.gov.au/social/blog/209/right-as-rain-how-to-interpret-the-daily-rainfall-forecast/

Forecasting is a technically supported art, not a guarantee but understanding the information conveyed can sometimes explain the difference between real and forecast results.

I have noticed that when rain is forecast, carrying an umbrella ensures you won’t need it


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Or: when the forecast is “sunny weather” wash your car and it will rain😆

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I downloaded the BOM app to my tablet, and find the forecasts quite reliable. I have two outdoor thermometers, as long as they are shaded they are usually within one or two degrees of the predicted temperature. Rain events arrive within an hour or two of the predicted time. The weather reports on media like radio or television are much more general than the app, and often disagree to some extent. I live in Newcastle, the rain pattern within a km of the coast is different to 4km inland, and the rain in Charlestown 15km away can be quite different to my local rain. I use the medium term forecast if I do any building or other outdoor activity that is rain affected, and rarely get caught out. I think the BOM do a great job.

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You’re getting your forecasts from Nobbys then. I’m out at Maryland, on the west side of a hill with zero protection from the summer sun
 they really were not thinking when they built these ticky-tacky boxes. I only use the BOM when I want to know what the weather is like in town.

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Curious. Have you tried Meteye? I would like to know if it is comparatively accurate in your specific location.

and an introductory video

If you cannot enter your ‘accurate location’ any other way, you can enter your latitude and longitude in the location search box or zoom in and click on your ‘spot’ on the map.

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Seems to be close. When BOM was all I had I tended to check the weather for Williamtown, which was very similar to here.

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SueW, do you use the app? I believe it works on a finer grid - according to BOM website it is 6km squares so Maryland should be different to Nobbys, http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/australian-digital-forecast-database.shtml

Yes, I use the app, as I said, I check it when I want to know what the weather is like in town. That is, right now or over the next couple of hours. I have my own little Netatmo weather station which is fine for my own weather, and I am perfectly OK with it not doing forecasts

While I was at my GP’s clinic yesterday morning, I overhead two men talking about the weather for the long weekend. One wanted to go camping and the other said that the forecast for the weekenf was fine.

When I was waiting for my Xray shortly after at a facility closer to the CBD, I observed 6 black cocatoos perched on a street light.

When I left from my physio’s practice on the other side of town early in the afternoon, I saw a large mob of black cockatoos perched on 2 street lights.

The ABC News website has this article regarding the long weekend weather for Qld.

However, the BOM website has this forecast for Mt Sheridan.

http://www.bom.gov.au/places/qld/mount-sheridan/

The BOM vs The Black Cockatoos.

We see know who is the smarter cockies next week.

I make similar judgements based on whether Toby is washing behind his ears, or whether kookaburras are laughing. Actually, Toby isnt very reliable but my last cat, Tommy, he was spot on. I have a friend whose hubby was a concreter (now retired) and she would ring me to find out whether Tom was predicting rain or not, to see whether it was worth Johnny going out for work
 It was hilarious.

As an addendum, theres a mob on facebook who call themselves Hunter Weather and they arent professionals that I know of, but they seem to be pretty accurate

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An incredible weather prediction from nine.com.au.

image

Thunderstorm to hit after scorching 40C temps

Large hail to pelt from above

9News 11 mins ago

“Large hail to pelt from above”.

So hail doesn’t actually rise from the ground? Who would have thought?

image

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Zeus and or Thor must be angry to be ‘pelting’ mere mortals with hail stones.

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Saves having to do any tip pruning around the garden. The quality of the service is still questionable.

The Gods can be so unreliable these days. :joy:

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