Should the NBN be Sold? And if the NBN is sold what Next for the consumer?

Because, it is a political convenience?

The plan to sell the NBN off came about primarily to avoid the cost going on the Federal Budget and adding to the deficit? Up to $51B?

Reasons for not privatising the NBN are discussed previously in this topic. Overall most comments against suggest selling the NBN may longer term be to the detriment of consumers (higher internet costs), and a loss of benefit to the nation (services incapable of meeting future or even current needs).

However for consumers there is also the need to be realistic about the possibility the sale is a done deal.

No one knows for sure how it is going to progress. The Government does not need public support to proceed to a sale, and perhaps not even a vote in parliament.

The conditions accompanying the sale are relevant as they will have a significant impact on all consumers who rely on the NBN, today and into the future. It’s an evolving topic.

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Thinking a bit more…an option may be for it to be sold (rolled) into the Future Fund…this may actually be a sensible option.

The government would still have indirect ownership and control, whist the NBN being run commercially, like a well oiled GOC/pseudo-private organisation, without the burden of government bureaucracy.

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Does that also mean it would be focused on minimising investment and maximising profits for its shareholder? Although that shareholder would then be government ( in theory a proxy for us), what government gets it usually keeps or distributes for its own convenience and those predictable pre-election ‘projects’.

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Which is where such proposals inevitably fail. Capitalist fundamentals ignore everything but the immediate. What isn’t short-term, short-range profit isn’t seen.

Infrastructure like the NBN (which is part - not all - of telecommunications infrastructure) is valuable beyond that limited range. Its benefits are difficult to quantify and thus invisible to the short-sighted.

It may well be that we would derive maximum benefit from the NBN if it was provided free-of-charge to users. That would not maximise shareholder value, but could optimise benefits to the nation, its economy and society. Thinking outside the Totalitarian Capitalist box can be dangerous. :wink:

In short, privatising the NBN stands to perpetuate the market failures evident in privatising the old copper network.

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Not yet ready for the annual report, however an end of year financial report appears to be on it’s way for today.

Of relevance in the commentary re those not yet serviced by the NBN.

The company noted in fine print that the 2020 completion goal covered “standard installation premises only.”

“Network construction will continue beyond 2020 in relation to new residential and business developments and complex installations, which includes properties that are difficult to access, culturally significant areas and heritage sites,” it said.

ITNews commented further.
It was not immediately clear how many premises would fall into one of these categories.

There is a first time for everything!
This might also suggest any premise not covered/included in the scope of current signed contacts will miss the 2020 deadline.

One way not to over spend the budget, prior to any sale?

Also a great uncertainty for those who miss out with currently no assurance of how and when they will be connected. I look to the stars for inspiration! :wink: Or should I be more optimistic?

There are has also been a pre-release statement from the NBN CEO saying they made a pretax operating profit for the year. It should not be too long to wait and see how that is viewed by the expert analysis in contrast to the spin of political convenience?

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It looks like they’re bending over backwards to be able to pretend that the NBN is “finished” at some point in the not-too-distant future. My guess is that the government will try to rush through a sale before the next election.

[edit]
It depends on how the numbers are spun, I guess:
https://www.computerworld.com.au/article/665293/nbn-co-still-red-climbs-towards-profit/

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My forlorn hope is that the Senate and/or the Nationals will block a sale. Nobody wins from a sale except the new monopoly owner and the political parties that will receive ‘in kind’ from that owner.

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I’ve noted that the NBN Co has a new member of senior staff.

The expanded role that Mr Will Irving as Chief Strategy and Transformation Officer will fill is spot on for setting the business up for a sale. An ideal role for someone experienced in Corporate Law and Commerce.

Rubbery figures? Also by definition neglects the interest on the $19.5B government loan or the additional up to $2B approved for borrowing on the market!

It didn’t rake long for a bunch of journalists with a passing interest in computing to see past the obvious in the financial positioning of the NBNCo.

I’m forgetting the announcement is not really about investor sentiment. Is it more likely about conjuring another miracle (box of magic tricks) for public (average voter) consumption?

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This probably doesn’t really belong in this thread, but doesn’t warrant one of its own so I’ll shoehorn it in anyway. The article reads like yet another call for competition in telecommunications infrastructure.

As has been pointed out repeatedly, the infrastructure is a natural monopoly. Permitting multiple commercial networks would lead to a repeat of the Optus/Telstra HFC fiasco. Lucrative markets served to excess, while others go without. We have that now with mobile infrastructure (multiple fragments of network, largely covering the same bits of country). Every dollar wasted on overlapping infrastructure ultimately come from you and I; the consumer/taxpayer. Australia can’t afford it.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/consumer/2019/08/16/telstra-optus-nbn-pressure/
The comments are worth a read.

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Another contribution from Paul Budde:

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One of the options from that article:

  • NBN disaggregated by technologies and each sold separately (Michael Cosgrave)
    As recommended by the 2014 Vertigan Report, in this option FTTx, HFC, fixed wireless and satellite could be sold and would compete with each other.

That could potentially be the worst of all possible worlds, as the owners simply would not have any reason to compete.

I don’t understand why the former ACCC boss would argue for it to be sold as a monopoly, while a former Telstra executive says it should stay in government hands.

Privatisation will solve all problems. Honest!

On satellite or wireless? Good luck with that!

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Of the government, or the NBN?
Probably no need to respond as one for all intents and purposes may already be privatised, in the eyes of some!

I’ve been looking for some clues concerning the release date for the NBN Co 2019 Annual Report, and also the updated 3-4yr Financial Forecast.

The Corporate Annual Report seems to be released later every year. There is an assumption the Government Share holder ministers have zero input to either document. Will the report and plan be released before the last days of the parliamentary sitting year for 2019? Or will it slip out into the desert of the Summer recess? There is only one sitting week for the House after the 24th Oct 2019.

We may have to wait till after then to see what the NBN Co is locking in for the penultimate year of it’s existence.

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Some consumer issues, a few tips and a little humour. Who would support privatisation? Who would buy it?


The Australian government and associated entities attacking journalists seems to be a thing these days.
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https://www.computerworld.com.au/article/666346/nbn-worth-money-it-cost-build-it-vocus-chief-executive-says/

That last might work - if we never again suffer under a Totalitarian Capitalist government.

The nation needs vital infrastructure run for the common good. Privatisation is the antithesis of that principle.

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The NBN Co recently presented it’s updated Corporate Plan for 2020-2023.

Why 2023? Because that is the first year into the future the NBN Co expects to be cash flow positive, IE turn a small profit.

No mention of plans for a sale, although the 2019 Annual Report might hold the answers, once the shareholder ministers have accepted the document?

On the Corporate Plan:
One informed assessment by Mark Gregory an Associate Professor in Network Engineering at RMIT University and is the Managing Editor of the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy

https://www.innovationaus.com/2019/08/NBN-maps-trouble-in-corporate-plan

The short form version of the relevant NBN Co Corporate Plan.

https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2019/documents/media-centre/corporate_plan_2020-2023_presentation.pdf

For anyone following the NBN implementation, there are many examples of possible misdirection, or alternate universes to explore.

My favourite, the NBN Co graphic and statement:

Š 2019 NBN Co Ltd.
31 August 2019 8
• Australia has the 7th
most affordable broadband, out of the 22 countries considered, at just 1.4% of per capita income

An alternate view:
Perhaps better attributed to the sponser, well, the Parliamentary Library?

Amongst the OECD (developed) nations, Australia is now ranked last in figures recently compiled by the Commonwealth Parliamentary Library. Australia has fallen to 36th place in affordability rankings.

In respect of internet speed rankings one source suggested Australia is 62nd internationally. Nothing like being the underdog when it comes to competition!

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From reports the cost of Mobile Network and speeds we rank quite well eg Speedtest August ranking we rank second in the World for speed with a result of 66.45 Mbps. Our Fixed Broadband however sits roughly around 60th (it bounces almost every month by a few points around that level) eg August we were 58th it rose by 2 from July’s result.

Speedtest also states and I note “5G is being deployed around the world and fiber continues to make gigabit speeds a reality in more and more countries”. We are stuck with what I think is a failed MTM NBN that can’t, & therefore will not ever, deliver anywhere near that to a very large portion of the population. Our Fixed Broadband puts us around the speeds that Jordan, Vietnam, Kosovo, & Kasikstan enjoy, it also includes EU outlier Austria and Persian Gulf countries Bahrain & Saudi Arabia (which all tend to be somewhat better than us but not much so). As more countries move to Fibre we will drop I believe further down that ranking. The cost of service may currently be reasonable but as others advance their speeds the bang for buck will become much worse for us. Who will buy the nbn™ network? Someone who likes a fire sale I surmise.

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Such as the one in which leaving a customer without service for a year is OK?

Or the one in which demand doesn’t keep rising?

Stadia has a base level that only needs 10 Mb/s. That’s a consistent, stable 10 Mb/s. Top tier 4K HDR demands 35 Mb/s. By all reports, there’s no market for the base level. To start, most demand will be around 20 Mb/s (consistent, stable, no dropouts or slowdowns). The market will quickly mature to the upper tier. Then, they’ll go to 8K. :expressionless:

As it’s only gaming, this might seem trivial. History shows that, where the trivial goes, the more substantial inevitably follows.

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When one thinks that the government has done its worst:

Seriously? So we will once again see a few suburbs in the centre of cities get connected while the rest of the country is ignored? It seems that this minister does not understand the different infrastructure requirements of mobile and fixed line Internet.

In the meantime, this article predicts that those who are not on FTTP are likely to start experiencing congestion once everyone is forced over to the great new(-ish) copper network.

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This could have gone on the Installation & the elderly thread, but it relates to the sellability of the NBN as well:
Sammy J Series 2 Royal Commission into Australia’s Slightly Crap Internet

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