A slightly different view on the level of risk though.
Government plans contemplate successive waves of pandemic reaching Australia and spreading throughout the community. Quarantine, self-isolation and social distancing measures could be encouraged or enforced in order to slow the spread of the virus through the community.
Prof Raina MacIntyre, head of the biosecurity program at the Kirby Institute at the University of New South Wales, said sustained transmission may result in anywhere from a quarter to 70% of the Australian population being infected.
Is it simply a matter of time?
The elephant in the room may be how significantly any government response affects the economy.
The impacts on trade (domestic and international) and business might be too much for any government strategy. 20% of Australia’s GDP in 2019 was due to the export of goods. China appears to have shut down.
Internally the Aussie economy has been hit with the bush fires, and now international tourism and study is taking a hit. Current forecast GDP growth is around 2% (depends who you ask for this stat).
Aside from a short spurt as some consumers stock up, will the rest stop spending just in case hitting the retail and discretionary spending brakes?
If there is any upside, the fall in the Aussie dollar might help to balance any loss of export volumes of beef, iron ore, coal and gas.