It turns out that the parcel was delivered to my local Australia Post agency on the 23rd. I happened to be in the shop on other business today and the owner mentioned the mail that had been waiting for a week.
The sequence of events:
22nd - dispatched from Adelaide;
I was emailed a link that didn’t work;
23rd - delivered Newcastle, then to a small village up the valley;
Adelaide to Newcastle in a day or so. Quite impressive so far;
Star Track database updated to show delivery to Newcastle (which I wouldn’t know about, if not for @grahroll);
Then, nothing. No email, no SMS, not even a card in my letter box. If they’d even updated the Star Track database to show the true location it would have helped (unless I was still relying on their dodgy link).