Electricity Price Increases

Yeah they still have to store the emissions from burning the Coal to produce the hydrogen. They just can’t get the idea that burning Coal is bad for us and there really is no safe way of storing the CO2 for the long long long time it will need to be kept. If they use solar energy what would it matter if there was a lot of Solar Energy needed, they seem to have a disconnect and keep thinking the Sun costs them money to mine. Ok so Solar Panels etc need money but not like Coal mining, but once in place the energy is pretty much pollution free.

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It’s a great idea??!!?

Dig up all that brown coal in Vic, rail it to port, wet of course to stop it drying out and getting all dusty. Send it to Japan, and let Japan turn it into hydrogen.

What could be simpler?
What better hi tech nation to perfect turning clean brown coal into clean hydrogen and then burying the CO2. But somehow I don’t think that is the plan, or
what Japan would want. They only want the hydrogen!

If Australia is going to be the processor, let any carbon emissions or losses from the total of the supply chain go to the account of the nation purchasing the hydrogen. If the hydrogen is really clean, it will be no problem selling the gas! :flushed:

Ultimately any thought that carbon capture, really carbon + oxygen (CO2) sequestration if we bypass the spin, is a permanent solution is very flawed. It is not sustainable.

There is currently only one know and proven effective way to capture and sequester carbon.

:evergreen_tree::evergreen_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::deciduous_tree::seedling::seedling::seedling::seedling::herb::deciduous_tree:

Back to electricity prices, next please.

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Well if it is processed offshore we didn’t contribute to the CO2 they say. What about the fugitive emissions from simply mining it.

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It all adds up and would all be against Australia’s GHG emissions targets. Although, according to one group of federal politicians we should all be pleased our production and exports of energy including natural gas are helping to reduce the emissions of our customers.

Fugitive emissions (mainly methane) and production emissions from Natural gas production have been fingered as one of the significant areas of increase in Australia’s emissions over the previous year!

How good is Australia? :roll_eyes:

The more valuable our NG becomes, will this drive all local energy sources up in value? Solar and wind excepted. Perhaps this is a good thing for renewables, if hydrocarbon based production of electricity continues to increase in cost.

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The market could be about to get interesting.

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Wages growth in the renewables sector is strong. That could impact electricity prices:


but batteries are flat :smirk::

and virtual power plants are coming:

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Yes and no… Whilst the wages for those working in the renewables industry may be on the rise, the reverse auctions being conducted in some areas for the supply of renewable energy continue to see a fall in the energy price, and that is the determinant of the cost of the energy in the market, not wages paid to workers. For other renewable energy, much of it is just supplied at the market price, which in most states is still controlled by the coal-fired energy suppliers.

Whilst those employed in the industry may be being paid more, I wonder how secure many of the jobs will be, given our current Commonwealth Government’s attitude towards renewable energy.

For renewable energy in Australia it’s a battle of ideology vs the bleeding obvious- everyone with any knowledge of the energy generation industry knows renewables are less expensive, and much more environmentally sound (+necessary under our Paris commitments) than fossil fuel sourced energy, and yet (being overly charitable here) our government seems blind to this fact.

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A bit about economics, and I hope they are bracing for the coalition to attack their thought. The free market is apparently good only so long as it supports the ‘correct right’ ideology and pockets.

the low cost of renewables would likely make coal obsolete

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Thoughtcrime comes to mind.

This is a bit weird. It seems climate change might make wind farms more effective.

[edit]
And the Big Banana … errr … battery is working so well that they’re increasing its capacity:

Didn’t someone at some level of government say that it would be a total failure?

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The road to lower electricity prices is evidently - not fossil fuels. Make of it what you will.


And a bit on pumped hydro power storage.

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An article regarding electricity prices and the effects on low income households in particular.

No shopping around in regional Qld with Ergon having an absolute monopoly but thankfully our solar and battery system is now saving us a bundle.

The electricity bill for the current quarter will be around $0 in compariosn to over $600 in the corresponding quarter last year.

Our quarterly electricity used to average around the same as our annual water bill, but the average of our 4 monthly water bill is now similar to our annual electricity bill.

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An article regarding developments in the electricity industry in Australia.

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And the reason is - not fossil fuels.

Not quite correct.

The reason is all generators within the AEMO managed area (Tas, Vic, SA, QLD and NSW). All generators, including renewable and traditional generators, contribute to the generation capacity available to the network. When the actual generation (including all generators) exceeds demand, this places downward pressure on electricity prices. Additional generation capacity added to the network, which happens to be both renewable and fossil fuel (gas turbine and diesel) has resulted in excess generation on the network.

All forms of generation, including existing renewables and traditional energy generation, as well as new and in-stream renewable and fossil fuel generation, in the AEMO area has contributed to the forecast reduction of electricity prices.

From the article:

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The report and summaries are available on the AMEC website.

If there was no fossil fuel generation, then one could argue that the reduction is electricity prices is solely responsible from any new renewable. But as there is existing generation and new generation from fossil duel generators, this along with existing renewable and the new renewable generation, has led to the potential oversupply situation, which has placed downward pressure on electricity prices. The AEMC has been indicating that it follows simple supply and demand curves (namely, too much supply in excess of a flat demand, places.downward pressure on prices.

The AMEC report includes impacts of all existing generation, including new generation on forecast electricity prices.

AMEC also states

Generation costs are falling because of additional generation; regulated network prices have been lowered in response to falling distribution costs; and green scheme costs are being driven down by cheaper large-scale generation certificates for increasing levels of renewable generation.*

  • Wholesale costs are estimated to fall by around $62 from FY19 to FY22 for the representative consumer as more supply comes into the market and demand remains flat.
  • Network costs are estimated to decrease by $11 over this period.
  • Environmental costs are estimated to fall by $21 over this period.

According to the AEMC’s report, committed new generation which has resulted in excess supply includes 2,338MW of solar, 2,566MW of wind and 210MW of gas turbine power.

Indeed they are - and by no rational stretch of the imagination can the potential reduction in electricity prices be attributed to fossil fuels.

210 MW from gas turbines.
A little more than the peak power from 4 x RR Trent turbo fan engines on an Airbus A380 at take-off. It’s a complicated conversion. Thrust in American lbf is so much simpler to relate.

I was also under the impression coal did have a part to play in potentially reducing the cost of electricity. The NEG has lost several coal fired, low efficiency, expensive to maintain and operate generators. You’d shut down the most expensive sources first, would you not?

There is a caveat with the forecast price reduction. It is only a forecast. There are factors outside the control of the forecasters. Things might be even better than the predictions, or they might result due to other circumstances, in no reduction to the consumer pricing.

A lot of work is required to ensure these projections are realised in the longer term. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s Integrated System Plan outlines the need for investment in new transmission infrastructure to ensure new supply can feed into the system. National energy authorities must also keep improving the design of the market beyond 2025.

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I haven’t gone back to re-read the report, I believe that there is also a forecast reduction in gas (and potentially coal) prices after 2019/20 as well which reduces the input costs of the generators…which would flow on to electricity costs (assuming the operator doesn’t pocket the difference…but for their generation to compete, they also need to sharpen their pencils).

A few years ago, especially with gas, there was a lot of hysterical media about gas becoming very expensive. It appears that government policy (or good luck), the gas prices are retreating.

Very true, and the last report some of the assumptions have proven not to be on the mark.

When I worked in the industry, the forecasts about a decade ago was that average electricity prices were to be about $0.45/kW by 2025. I suspect that the government used such information when designing their generous FITs as they would have assumed that the cost around now would have been equalised by the cost of the market electricity. This is why reading the limitations is also key to any modelling or forecasting.

An article claiming electricity prices will reduce in Australia with th eexception of WA where they will increase.

Too bad if you live in the wild west where they have never even had any sort of solar grants scheme,